Chargers vs. Jets Prediction, Picks & Odds Week 9: Monday Night Football Best Bet
The Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets conclude the NFL's Week 9 on Monday Night Football, and we offer our top Chargers vs. Jets prediction backed by the best NFL odds.
In Week 8, the Los Angeles Chargers broke their two-game losing streak by delivering a commanding performance against the Chicago Bears, winning 30-13 at home. This victory, their first by a double-digit margin this season, potentially marks a turning point for the team, as it shifted from a series of close one-possession games to back-to-back wins with winning margins of 14-plus points.
During a three-game win streak, the New York Jets (4-3) have exhibited a formidable defense by limiting their opponents to an average of just 15 points per game. The Jets are gearing up for their third prime-time home game, having previously notched a victory against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 and enduring a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4.
To accompany our Chargers vs. Jets player props, Zach Wilson props, and Chargers vs. Jets parlay picks, we have our best Chargers vs. Jets prediction for Monday Night Football (MNF odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chargers vs. Jets prediction: Monday Night Football
Chargers ML (-155 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Going from facing the Bears' defense to the Jets' defense is night and day, but that does not make what Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert accomplished last week any less impressive. Herbert ended the first quarter with a 151.7 quarterback rating (158.3 is perfect), and had just four incompletions to three touchdowns in the first half. When he started the game 11-for-11 passing, Next Gen Stats calculated his percentage to complete all those passes at 5.8%.
Herbert will be under much more pressure than he was against Chicago, but given his ability to throw short and get the ball out quickly, that should negate the Jets pass rush. Herbert completed 27-of-30 passes under 10 air yards for 222 yards and three touchdowns (+8.2% CPOE) against the Bears. The 4.9 air yards per attempt were his second-lowest, but he turned that into a season-high 60% success rate per Next Gen Stats.
Herbert is 22-6 (.785 win percentage) when his defense allows fewer than 28 points. Considering New York has scored 23-plus points just once this year, we expect Los Angeles to find success on the road this week. In addition, the Jets are coming off a game against the Giants where they punted on 11 of their 17 possessions while rushing for just 58 yards and going 2-for-15 on third down. Thus, we do not expect New York to take advantage of a Chargers defense that entered last week ranked 31st or worse in yards per game (406.8), passing yards per game (310), passing yards per play (8.1), fourth-down percentage (70%), and third-down conversions in the fourth quarter (50%).
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Chargers vs. Jets best odds
BetMGM, DraftKings, bet365 (-155)
There is nearly a $10 difference between those sportsbooks on the low and high end of the moneyline odds for this Monday Night Football tilt, so bettors have their choice of DraftKings, BetMGM, and bet365 for the best value. We would only back the Chargers on the point spread if they moved off the key number of three to -2.5 or lower, especially with how often they are involved in one-possession games.
Chargers vs. Jets odds for Monday Night Football
Chargers vs. Jets odds analysis
Our best sports betting apps are in unison, with the Chargers being three-point road favorites, with some shops charging extra (DraftKings is at -112, FanDuel is at -115) to back Los Angeles. The Chargers were either -2 or -2.5 heading into late Monday morning, but by Monday afternoon, the line had risen to -3 at all shops, and there has been no movement since. The Jets are getting slightly more of the point spread wagers (55%) despite New York being 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an overtime contest.
While our best sports betting sites offer the same 41.5-point total, DraftKings (-112) and FanDuel (-115) charge more in juice to back the Under. All line movement has gone towards the Under, though DraftKings initially saw its total rise from 42 to 42.5 on Monday morning before settling back down at 41.5. The Under has received 54% of the early wagers, and it has cashed in each of the Chargers’ last five games.
Monday Night Football game info
- When: Monday, Nov. 6 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN
- Weather: 56 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph NW
Chargers-Jets prediction made 11/1/2023 at 4:03 p.m. ET
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