Lions vs. Packers Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 4: Thursday Night Football
First place is on the line in the NFC North as the Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions, and we have you covered with our best Lions vs. Packers predictions for Thursday Night Football based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
Detroit is 2-1 after last week’s 20-6 win over the Atlanta Falcons, marking the team's best start since 2019.
Meanwhile, the Packers outscored the New Orleans Saints 18-0 in the fourth quarter on Sunday to escape with an 18-17 victory. It was the Packers’ 11th straight home-opener win, and they're now .500 or better (2-1) through three games for the ninth straight season.
Here's our best Lions-Packers prediction for Thursday Night Football, and don't miss our Lions vs. Packers player props (NFL Week 4 odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Make sure to also check out our Lions vs. Packers SGP, Jordan Love player props, touchdown scorer predictions, and our Week 4 player props featuring a receiver from this game!
Lions vs. Packers prediction: Thursday Night Football
Under 45.5 (-110 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Detroit has scored 20-plus points in 12 consecutive games, its longest streak since 1995. However, with the Lions' offensive line injuries and this game being played on a short week, we expect that streak to end in what should be a defensive struggle.
The Atlanta Falcons didn't officially record a sack against the Lions, but the team registered nine quarterback hits on Jared Goff. Detroit was already without Taylor Decker and Halapoulivaati Vaitai on the offensive line. Then Matt Nelson and practice squad callup Dan Skipper left with ankle and hamstring injuries, and the Lions finished the game with rookie Colby Sorsdal at guard.
An offense that ended 2022 ranked fifth in scoring, fourth in total offense, and sixth in offensive efficiency will encounter difficulties matching those numbers if it can't keep its quarterback upright (Green Bay registered four sacks in Week 2, including three on third down).
Green Bay is also banged up entering Week 4, as Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, David Bakhtiari, and Jaire Alexander were out last week and now face only three days to get healthy for this matchup. Watson is expected to get a limited number of snaps on Thursday, while Jones is expected to play, too.
Three important offensive pieces potentially being out spells trouble against a Detroit defense that was stout in holding the dangerous Bijan Robinson and the rest of the Falcons' running attack to 44 yards on 20 carries. In addition, the Lions fixed their issues with covering tight ends, as they entered the week allowing 175 receiving yards to the position (second-most) but limited Kyle Pitts to 41 yards. Lastly, Detroit’s defensive momentum has carried over from 2022, as it held opponents to 20.2 points per game from Weeks 9-18.
These two teams combined for 24 and 36 points in their two meetings of 2022, and that was with Aaron Rodgers under center for Green Bay. This is a four-star play, as Thursday night games have tended to start slow recently, with first-half Unders in TNF games since 2021 going 23-12-1.
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Lions vs. Packers best odds
BetRivers (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 45 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 45 |
| Under -110 | Under -110 | Under -110 | Under -110 | Under -110 |
As Under backers, BetRivers is our easy go-to shop as the only place still offering a total as high as 45.5, with standard -110 juice as a bonus. While the half-point difference among the rest of our best sportsbooks isn't surprising, it's interesting to see every book is posting the standard -110 juice on either side of the total for now. The betting splits later in the week will likely dictate a change in those prices and not necessarily a line change.
Lions vs. Packers odds for Thursday Night Football
Lions vs. Packers odds analysis
The lookahead line for this total was as high as 46.5 at DraftKings, but it was most commonly found at 46. DraftKings released its opening number Sunday afternoon at 46 (toward the end of the 1:00 games), and Under backers bet it down a whole point overnight. The Under is 4-1 in Detroit’s previous five games.
There's a similar one-point difference across all the best live betting sites on the point spread for this matchup, with DraftKings and BetRivers on the low end of Lions -1, while Caesars is the only shop with Detroit -2. Early wagers are nearly 2/1 in favor of Detroit. DraftKings is down a half-point from -1.5 to -1 in the last 24 hours since releasing its opening number, while Caesars opened at -2 and went to -1.5 briefly before being bet back to the original number. Detroit has covered 10 consecutive games against divisional opponents and is 5-1 straight up in its previous six road contests.
Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 28 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 52 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, 4-mph easterly winds
Lions-Packers prediction made 9/25/23 at 7:22 a.m. ET
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