Jaguars vs. Bills MNF Parlay: Monday Night Football SGP Odds
Trevor Lawrence is going to get it going for Jacksonville at some point this year. I just don’t believe that point comes Monday night against a contending team in the Super Bowl odds.
Mike Spector agrees in his Trevor Lawrence MNF player prop bets, as does Phil Wood in his Jaguars vs. Bills player props. You can also check out our Jaguars vs. Bills prediction.
Our Jaguars vs. Bills MNF parlay based on the best Monday Night Football odds could lean into a shootout between two big-name quarterbacks, one of whom is near the top of the NFL MVP odds. But it's just hard to predict the T-Law breakout before we see it after his consecutive quiet weeks.
We were on the wrong side of the spread for our Chiefs vs. Falcons SNF parlay, but our read on the player props for last night’s SGP was accurate. Let’s try to make it 3-for-3 on Monday night.
Jaguars vs. Bills parlay: Monday Night Football
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Bills -5.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Trevor Lawrence Under 220.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- James Cook Under 63.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +675 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 12.90%
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SGP predictions for Jaguars vs. Bills
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Bills -5.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Buffalo permitted a strong day from the Arizona offense in its opener. But the Bills' defense shut things down in Week 2, limiting Miami to just 10 points.
Granted, Tua Tagovailoa being knocked out midway through last Thursday contributed to the Dolphins’ attack going up in smoke. But the Bills harassed Tua for three interceptions before his exit.
Jags stuck in neutral
The Bills have since been enjoying tons of extra time to prepare for a Jaguars offense that's started the new season miserably. Averaging just 15.0 points per game, it’s a bad time for the Jacksonville offense to try to keep pace with a Josh Allen-led side that's cleared 30 points in both games this season.
Some betting action in recent hours has been pushing the Bills' spread to -5.5 across our best sportsbooks. Caesars lists Buffalo's spread with -115 odds, while DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365 all post the odds at a standard -110.
Lawrence Under 220.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Lawrence has completed just 51% of his passing attempts through two games. Although he’s avoided throwing interceptions to this point, passing yards have been hard to accumulate with such a low completion rate.
Will the box score reflect improvement?
While it’s hard to imagine Lawrence scuffling to the same extent on Monday night—you can’t hold him down forever—I’m just not convinced the box score will fully reflect any improvement he might show in this one.
Buffalo has allowed 179.0 passing yards per game over the first two weeks. For Lawrence to reach this low-200s passing total, it would take more than a mild step up. I don’t foresee that coming against a confident Buffalo secondary.
Since we’re going Under on this prop, Caesars (219.5 yards) and BetMGM (218.5 yards) aren’t ideal places to bet it. Those lines are lower than at FanDuel (222.5 yards) or DraftKings (220.5 yards).
If the lines keep shifting, we’re willing to include this prop down to 215.5 yards.
James Cook Under 63.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
James Cook was the star of the show on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, but it’s hard to envision him repeating that level of rushing efficiency on MNF.
However, he could be in a nice position to reach paydirt early, as Rodrigo Villagomez notes in his first touchdown scorer predictions for Monday Night Football.
No encore for Cook?
Though Cook racked up 78 rushing yards in that game, he did it on only 11 carries while ceding nine to rookie Ray Davis. Another even split to the workload against a Jaguars defense that's ranked ninth in rushing yards allowed per game so far could mean an underwhelming night for Cook relative to his rushing prop.
DraftKings is posting a slightly less favorable line on Lawrence’s passing yards, but we find the two-yard advantage on Cook’s yardage there (63.5 yards) compared to FanDuel (61.5 yards) to be a more significant difference. Plus, DraftKings’ overall parlay odds take the cake over FanDuel +675 to +588, solidifying our decision to play this SGP with DK.
A winning $10 wager on at DraftKings would lead to a $67.50 profit.
Elsewhere for Buffalo, Spector thinks Josh Allen is due for some regression in his Jaguars vs. Bills prediction.
Meanwhile, Wood believes he may not produce well as a rusher in his Josh Allen MNF player prop bets.
Jaguars vs. Bills odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Jaguars vs. Bills
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 66 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, 6 mph winds SE
- Favorite: Bills (-250 via BetMGM)
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