Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

With Puka Nacua out, Whittington will see an increased role after season highs in receptions and targets last week. The Jaguars are allowing the third-most 20-yard catches and fifth-most 40-yard catches, which could be beneficial to Whittington as a big-play threat.

Jacksonville’s offensive line looked more like a turnstile last week against the Seahawks, allowing seven sacks of Trevor Lawrence and failing to create many holes in the run game either.

I’m expecting the Jags to combat those issues by calling more pass plays to Etienne and the Jacksonville backfield. Etienne has already seen more work through the air the past two weeks, including a season-high four receptions and five targets against Seattle.

The Jaguars have the third-best first-half scoring defense, but they rank 19th in the second half. Meanwhile, the Rams have started slow, averaging just 9.8 points per first half, but 13.5 per second half. Williams has five touchdowns this year, with three coming through the air.

Thomas set season-highs in yards, receptions, and targets last week, as he finally found the end zone for the first time since Week 1. The Rams have allowed just two rushing touchdowns this season, so all Jaguars' scoring should be through the air, benefiting their leading receiver.

Adams is a red-zone monster, too, leading the league with 12 targets inside the 20-yard line. In an early London kickoff against a stingy Jacksonville Jaguars defense, expect Matthew Stafford to feed his WR1 all morning. Fire this up for Adams to score his fourth touchdown of the year - the value’s too good to pass up.

With Puka Nacua officially out, that frees up close to 13 targets for the receiver room. Who's going to be the main beneficiary? Yea, that's Adams, who was already stealing some of the target share from Nacua prior to him going down in Week 6. 

Adams is also a beast in the red zone, leading the NFL in targets inside the 20 with 12. In an early game in London against the vaunted Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense, expect Matthew Stafford to lean on his WR1.

With a healthy Nacua over the last two seasons, Los Angeles is 12-5, while its quarterbacks have totaled a 30-7 passing touchdown-to-interception ratio. They have also taken sacks just 4% of the time, and have averaged a plus-4.9 Offensive EPA per game. 

However, the Rams are 2-4 without Nakua, while their quarterbacks have a 4-4 passing touchdown-to-interception ratio, taken sacks 9% of the time, and average a minus- 0.8 Offensive EPA per game.

Neither team has great momentum coming into this game. The Jaguars are coming off season-lows in points, yards, and rushing yards, while the Rams had season-lows in yards, passing yards, and first downs in last week’s win.

Higbee caught a TD pass last week and should see red-zone opportunities again on Sunday with a couple of the Rams' top receivers dealing with injuries.

Hunter caught four passes on seven targets last week, and Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said this week that he's looking to design and call more plays featuring Hunter as the primary read.

There's a high likelihood Puka Nacua won't feature in London when the Rams take on the Jaguars. That should help the Jaguars cover as the betting underdog. 

We've got two of the best scoring defenses in football going up against one another in London on Sunday morning. The Rams were only able to put up 17 points against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in Week 6, and might come into Sunday with an injured Puka Nacua. Jump on this number while it's still available.

Trevor Lawrence had played well under pressure recently prior to Week 6, as he went 4-for-6 for 91 yards and two rushing touchdowns in the 12 dropbacks he was pressured in the Monday night win against the Chiefs. 

This becomes a more confident play if the league’s second-leading receiver, Puka Nacua, cannot suit up because of the ankle injury he suffered last week.

I don't expect Puka Nacua to play, as unless their star receiver is 100% healthy, they will err on the side of caution. Nacua, who was on an NFL record-breaking pace before the injury, accounted for 39% of Matthew Stafford's passing yards through the first six games.  

These are two of the most underappreciated teams in the NFL. I'm not worried about Jacksonville after a tough test against Seattle's defense - this feels like a bounce-back spot before a favorable London crowd.

Spears saw a 59.3% snap share last week, producing 50 yards from scrimmage, and could be featured even more in Tennessee's first game under interim head coach Mike McCoy.

Okonkwo has cleared this number in four of his last five games, and New England is allowing 66.5 receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Henry has accounted for three of the Patriots' 10 receiving touchdowns this season. Tennessee ranks 28th in the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed.

These teams are entirely opposing trajectories, with Drake Maye showing composure and precision beyond his years. The Tennesee Titans have lost five of six by at least eight points. 

If you haven't watched these teams of late, you're missing out on an MVP-level performance from Drake Maye in his second season ... and you aren't missing much for Tennessee. This one shouldn't be close.

Known for his ability to produce yards after the catch, Burden recorded a 37-yard reception last week against Washington and a 65-yarder two weeks earlier versus Dallas. He's seen more attention in the Chicago passing game recently and should be able to break a long one versus a Saints defense that is allowing the fifth-most yards per completion to wide receivers.

Shaheed has caught at least four passes in every game this season, including two receptions of 39+ yards. Chicago allowed two passing plays of 33+ yards last week against Washington.

Odunze's four-game TD streak ended last week in Washington thanks to an illegal formation penalty that wiped out an apparent score. Look for him to get back on track against a Saints defense that allowed three touchdowns to wide receivers last week.

The Chicago Bears have looked good lately and are playing a New Orleans Saints team that lost both away games by at least 12 points. Spencer Rattler is still searching for his first road victory. 

It feels like oddsmakers are still a little too skeptical of the Saints, who have seen three of their four ATS losses decided by a combined six points. This matchup has sneaky fireworks potential, too, if both young quarterbacks get hot.

Waller has only played in three games, but he already leads the Dolphins with four receiving touchdowns. The Browns have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends, tied for the third-most in the league.

The Browns are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game, which will make Achane, who has averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry twice this season, ineffective on the ground. However, the Dolphins will get him involved in the passing game.

The Dolphins are allowing a league-worst 168.5 rushing yards per game, and Judkins has already rushed for at least 94 yards twice this season.

Browns running back Quinshon Judkins faces a Dolphins defense that allows the most rushing yards per game to running backs (134.3). Judkins’ role is expanding, having played nearly 60% of the snaps and totaled 80% of the rushing attempts in Weeks 3-5, while averaging 4.6 yards per carry in that span.  Miami has allowed three different running backs to rush for 100 or more yards, and has been gashed by Kimani Vidal and Rico Dowdle in the last two weeks.

The weather is going to be terrible, which doesn't bode well for the traveling Dolphins. The inclement conditions will allow Cleveland to take over in the trenches and win dirty. 

The Dolphins' defense ranks 32nd against the run, but the Browns haven't scored more than 17 points in a game this season, and they're averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. The Dolphins are 1-5, but they've been competitive, losing just two games by more than one score and scoring at least 21 in five consecutive games.

It feels like a stretch to call Cleveland a "good" football team given its woes under center, but there's no question the Dolphins are a bad team spiraling into collapse. That makes this bet a bargain on the Browns at home.

The Jets have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends, second-most in the league. Tremble only has one score this year, but he has the second-most receptions and receiving yards of any Panther entering this great matchup.

Dowdle has rushed 53 times in the last two weeks, and even with Chuba Hubbard scheduled to return, I expect Dowdle to be rewarded for his effectiveness, as the Panthers ease Hubbard back in from injury.

The Jets' losing streak has to end at some point, but I'm not willing to back them, considering how woeful their offense is. The Carolina Panthers usually struggle on the road, but they should take some of the momentum gained from beating Dallas into MetLife Stadium. 

New York has started 0-6 for the third time in franchise history, and hit rock bottom last week after finishing with a franchise-worst -10 passing yards in a loss to the Broncos.

Meanwhile, Carolina has found an offensive formula that works, as running back Rico Dowdle’s 473 scrimmage yards over the last two weeks are the most in a two-game stretch in team history.

It wasn't long ago that I viewed Carolina as the worst team in the NFL, but the Panthers have showed signs of life behind Rico Dowdle's career resurgance. I'm not sure that same spark exists in New York on either side of the ball amid a dreadful start.

Following his suspension, Jordan Addison has scored a touchdown in one of his two games. For his career, Addison has scored in 16 out of 34 regular season games (47%). 

Though the Eagles have only allowed four touchdowns to wide receivers through six games, I like the value on Addison's touchdown prop given an implied probability far lower than the 47% rate he's produced in his NFL career.

The Eagles have allowed 4.7 YPC to opposing rushers this season (23rd in NFL) while permitting 134.3 yards per game on the ground (26th in NFL).

I'm looking for the Vikings to steer away from heavy volume through the air against the league's 12th-ranked pass defense (208.5 yards per game), opting to move the chains with Jordan Mason instead.

Minnesota is statistically more susceptible to opposing rushing attacks (132.2 yards per game, 24th in NFL) while shutting down opposing passing offenses to the tune of 157.6 yards per game (2nd in NFL). The Vikings allow just 113.0 passing yards per game at home. 

Hurts has fallen short of 209.5 passing yards in three of six games.

Saquon Barkley is too talented of a running back to continue his trend of rushing for 60 or fewer yards in five of six games, and I am banking on this being the week the Eagles offense gets him going.

Barkley faces a Vikings rush defense that ranks 24th in rush yards per game (132.2), 22nd in yards per rush (4.5), and 25th in Defensive Rush EPA (-0.1). 

I'm not willing to give up on the Eagles yet. They haven't lost three in a row in three years, and I don't expect a Minnesota Vikings team with an inconsistent offense to end that streak. 

The Vikings have nine turnovers this season, including at least one in four of their five games. In the only two games the Eagles have lost, their opponent didn't have a single turnover. 

All of the attention is on the Eagles' struggles of late, but what version of the Vikings will we see after their return from across the pond? This could be a nightmare outing for whomever is under center for Minnesota.

Hunt played just 30% of snaps last week against the Lions, logging only six rushing attempts—his lowest volume since Week 1.

On the year, Hunt is averaging just 3.8 YPC. Vegas has allowed just 3.5 YPC over its past three games.

Ashton Jeanty has scored touchdowns in two of his past three games and has logged five touchdowns through six games of his rookie NFL season.

The Chiefs have allowed four total touchdowns to running backs.

In two games against the Raiders in 2023, Rashee Rice logged eight and six receptions. In three full games before his injury last year, he racked up 24 receptions.

He faces a Raider defense that has allowed 81 receptions to wide receivers this season (4th-most in NFL). The Kansas City offense averages 35.5 passing attempts per game (6th in NFL).

Rice returns to the Chiefs after a (well-deserved) suspension, and you can rest assured Patrick Mahomes is going to want to get him going early.

In three games with the Chiefs in 2024, Rice saw a whopping 29 targets, hauling in 24 grabs for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Rice isn't returning from injury - he won't need ramping up. Expect a lot of points for the Chiefs against the lowly Raiders, and for Rice to hit pay dirt.

Are the Chiefs back? I believe the Chiefs are all the way back - we're riding them for our NFL expert picks for Week 7. I wasn’t on board until last week, when they completely dismantled the Detroit Lions. The dangerous offense is now fully healthy with Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice back in the fold, and Kansas City owns the 11th-best scoring defense in football. This might be a route come Sunday.

Kansas City has been at its best at home recently while the Las Vegas Raiders have struggled mightily on the road, losing the last two by an average of 25.5 points. 

I'll admit that this feels like a sucker bet on the surface, but this feels like a different Chiefs team with a vertical passing attack, while three of the Raiders' four losses came by 11 or more.

The Denver Broncos couldn't get out of their own way against the New York Jets (yes, the Jets) last week, and now they face a Giants team - with the dynamic rookie duo of Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart - just rounding into form.

The Giants are 2-1 against the spread in the Dart era, look for them to go 3-1 on Sunday.

Yeah, he’s facing the best red-zone defense in football (28% red-zone conversions against rank No. 1), but that won’t stop Skattebo given his volume. Even though he wasn't heavily featured early in the season, Skattebo is fifth in the NFL in red-zone rushes with 22, scoring four touchdowns inside the 10-yard line.

Veteran running back J.K. Dobbins had TDs in each of his first three games with Denver, but he's since only scored once. Still, I'm betting on Dobbins to find the end zone against a Giants defense that has allowed seven rushing touchdowns, including four to No. 1 running backs.

Also worth noting: Dobbins, who didn't score against the Jets in London last week, has gone 15 straight games without getting shutout in back-to-back contests.

Broncos No. 1 wideout Courtland Sutton had a rough day in London last week, catching just one pass in a 13-11 win over the Jets. Despite that, Sutton still has recorded at least five receptions in eight of his last 10 regular season and playoff games and 14 of his last 17 (including six of seven at home).

Never once during this 17-game stretch has Sutton finished with fewer than five catches in back-to-back contests. Meanwhile, the Giants' defense has allowed 12 different opponents to record five-plus catches, including at least one in every game.

Not only has Jaxson Dart beaten his rushing yards prop in each of his three starts with the Giants, he's done so with ease. The rookie had 54 yards against the Chargers, 55 at New Orleans and 58 against Philadelphia.

Now, though, he has to face the Broncos' dominant defense, one that has held all six opposing QBs below their projected rushing total. The best a QB has done against Denver on the ground: the Jets' Justin Fields, who had 31 yards last week (11.5  below his projection). Next best: Justin Herbert with 6 yards.

Everyone stay quiet; the sportsbooks haven't caught on to just how great Skattebo is for the Giants. First of all, the workload Skattebo is receiving is one of a true bellcow, with 25, 15, and 19 carries over the last three weeks. And second, regardless of the game script, it seems like the Giants are hellbent on sticking to the run game.

Things didn't work out well in Jaxson Dart's first road game, where he lost to a subpar New Orleans team. The Denver Broncos, who have an immeasurably better defense, are superb in the Mile High City. 

I'm compelled by the brand of football we've seen from the Giants of late, but this will be Jaxson Dart's toughest test yet against a ferocious Broncos defense. I'm inclined to wait until later in the week to see if Denver -6.5 becomes available.

Tyler Warren’s 370 receiving yards lead all tight ends this season. And the start to his rookie season has been historic, as he is the only tight end since the AFL/NFL merger with 350 yards and at least three receiving touchdowns in his first three games.

Indianapolis allows the second-most yards to wide receivers, while McConkey has seen seven or more targets in each of the last two weeks.

Los Angeles has held four of its last five opposing starting quarterbacks to 205 or fewer passing yards, with three failing to throw for 180 yards. And the Chargers have allowed the most rushing touchdowns outside the tackles while Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has scored the most touchdowns in that split, so Indianapolis should be attacking more on the ground this week.

The Chargers escaped Miami with a victory but still have a rash of injuries to contend with. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts show no signs of slowing down. 

I truly do respect and appreciate the job that Shane Steichen has done this year in Indianapolis. I just think the Chargers are a better football team, which makes this short line feel like a rare value for the home favorites.

Pickens has found the end zone in a remarkable five straight games and has scored in 83.3% of his games as a Cowboy.

Six of the nine receiving touchdowns permitted by Washington’s defense have gone to wide receivers.

The Commanders have allowed 142.7 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks. Opposing lead rushers have reached 63 or more yards against Washington’s defense in four of the past five games.

Javonte Williams is coming off a quiet outing against Carolina, but he has cleared this rushing line in four of six games.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt has evolved into the lead rusher for the Commanders, garnering 14+ rushing attempts in consecutive weeks leading into this matchup with the Cowboys' 29th-ranked run defense.

Dallas is allowing 142.2 yards per game on the ground and has permitted opposing lead rushers to cruise for 86 or more rushing yards in three straight weeks.

He's found a home in Dallas with quarterback Dak Prescott, who will still find him even though Lamb is expected to play in Week 7. This game is projected to be high scoring, with sportsbooks settling on 54.5 as the total. Pickens is third in the NFL with nine red-zone targets, and I expect him to hit for six come Sunday against a soft Washington Commanders secondary.

Washington can be had through the air, as their pass defense ranks 23rd in football, allowing 235 yards per game. With the books projecting this one as a high-scoring game with a total in the 50s, rest assured Mr. Prescott will be dropping back close to 40 times - giving us enough volume to soar over this number.

The Cowboys are one of two teams to enter Week 7 ranked in the bottom five in both pass and rush yards per game allowed. Dallas is also the league’s worst scoring defense (30.7 points per game), has allowed the most first downs (145), and the most points allowed in the fourth quarter (64).