Dolphins vs. Bills Player Prop Bet Odds & Touchdown Picks: Bills Continue To Limit Hill

The Buffalo Bills blew the Miami Dolphins out in a Week 2 road win and will look to expand their lead in the AFC East race by completing the sweep of their division rivals.

• Miami scored 21 or more points for the first time all season last week
• The Bills have allowed just 13.3 points per game during a three-game winning streak that's shortened their Super Bowl odds
• Josh Allen is one of the NFL MVP odds favorites

As part of our Week 9 NFL predictions, our Dolphins vs. Bills player prop bet expects a big play from Miami’s running back but predicts a low offensive ceiling for one of the league’s most explosive playmakers.

Dolphins vs. Bills NFL player prop bets: Sunday

Odds as of Friday and subject to change.

• Keon Coleman touchdown pick: Coleman anytime touchdown scorer (+190 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• De'Von Achane longest reception Over 14.5 yards (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Tyreek Hill Under 79.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Dolphins vs. Bills touchdown pick

Keon Coleman anytime touchdown scorer (+190) ⭐⭐⭐

Keon Coleman may rank third among all Bills pass catchers in receptions and targets, but he is quickly becoming Josh Allen’s favorite option in the red zone.

Coleman is the only Bills receiver with three receiving touchdowns, and two of those have come within the last four weeks.

He ranks in the top five in receiving yards (195), yards after the catch (103), receptions of 15-plus yards (five), and yards per route run (3.42) over the last two weeks, per PFF.

This is a three-star play, as Allen has seven total touchdowns during the team’s three-game winning streak, and I expect him to connect with Coleman on a score for the second straight week.

Coleman has as high as a 41.67% implied probability to find the end zone based on DraftKings’ +140 odds. But FanDuel’s +190 net $5 more in profits on a $10 wager ($19 compared to $14 at DraftKings).

Meanwhile, our Esten McLaren is eyeing another receiver to score in this game as part of his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Week 9. And Phil Wood thinks Coleman's quarterback will enjoy a successful day in his Josh Allen player prop picks.

Best odds: +190 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 34.48%

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Best Dolphins vs. Bills prop bets

De'Von Achane longest reception Over 14.5 yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Dolphins running back De’Von Achane was one of the happiest skill position players to see Tua Tagovailoa healthy and under center last week.

Achane scored 26.7 fantasy points last week (second among running backs), and was a huge threat in the passing game, where he saw eight targets.

With Tagovailoa in the lineup, Achane is averaging more than 26 fantasy points per game and seven targets per game this season.

The Bills have allowed the most receiving yards and the second-most touchdowns to opposing running backs. However, I am targeting Achane’s longest reception prop, as his anytime touchdown odds (-105 at FanDuel) and the Over on his 3.5 receptions (juiced as high as -180 at bet365) do not provide much value.

Achane has at least one 16-yard catch in all three games played with Tagovailoa this year, including a 16-yard catch in the Week 2 matchup against Buffalo. 

The Over is juiced as high as -127 at Caesars, so I am headed to bet365 for the best price.

Elsewhere, Phil Wood thinks Achane's quarterback will be accurate on Sunday as part of his Tua Tagovailoa player props.

Best odds: -120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 54.55%

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Tyreek Hill Under 79.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

In Tyreek Hill’s six games against Buffalo since being traded to Miami, his receiving lines are as follows: 7/69/0, 7/82/1, 3/58/0, 9/69/1, 2/33/0, 3/24/0. Thus, he has gone over this projected total once.

Hill’s strengths lie as more of a vertical threat and not in the quick passing game, which Tagovailoa used successfully last week. 

On attempts where he threw in 2.5 seconds or less, Tagovailoa was 21-for-24 for 7.4 yards per attempt. Those 21 completions were tied for the fourth-most of his career in that split. When he had more than 2.5 seconds to throw, he was just 7-for-14 for an average of 4.1 yards per attempt.

Under backers will find the best number at FanDuel, as Hill’s O/U is as low as 76.5 yards at several of our top sports betting sites.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Dolphins vs. Bills game info

• When: Sunday, Nov. 3
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• How to watch: CBS
• Weather: 54 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph E
• Favorite: Bills -6 (-110 via BetMGM)

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