Josh Allen Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds vs. Dolphins
Josh Allen will look to lead his Buffalo Bills to a season sweep of the Miami Dolphins. The Bills come into the divisional matchup sitting fifth in the Super Bowl odds.
Allen endured one of his least productive games of the season when these teams last met in Week 2. Does that mean the best Josh Allen player prop bets for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET game in Orchard Park, NY (CBS) are Unders?
Since his 139-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Dolphins, Allen has thrown for at least 215 yards in four of his six games, and he’s chucked 11 touchdown passes. The Dolphins boast a top-five pass defense, yet the Bills are 6-point favorites.
What does that mean for Allen on Sunday?
Josh Allen prop bets Week 9
- Josh Allen touchdown pick: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Allen Pick Under 242.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Allen Under 0.5 interceptions (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Saturday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Josh Allen touchdown pick vs. Dolphins
Josh Allen Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100) ⭐⭐⭐
Allen has thrown 14 touchdown passes over eight games this season. He’s recorded two touchdown passes in three consecutive contests, but the signal-caller has only thrown more than two touchdown tosses once this season. He’s also tallied three games in which Allen threw one or fewer touchdown passes, including against the Dolphins.
For as much of a disaster as the Dolphins’ season has been, their pass defense isn’t the problem. They’re allowing just 0.7 passing touchdowns per game, which is tied for the second-fewest in the NFL. The team has also given up two touchdown passes in a game just once all year.
The price for this Under ranges from -113 to +100. Both BetMGM and DraftKings are offering +100, so either of our top NFL prop betting sites will serve as the best place to make this wager.
However, if Allen does throw a touchdown pass, our Mike Spector thinks Keon Coleman will be on the other end as part of his Dolphins vs. Bills player props.
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50.00%
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Josh Allen NFL player props
NFL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Josh Allen Under 242.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Allen’s 139-yard performance against the Dolphins earlier this season was tied more to how that game played out than Allen’s abilities when facing Miami's defense. He only attempted 19 passes amid a blowout.
But I expect a similar performance on Sunday. Allen, who's a long shot in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds, has thrown for fewer than 242.5 passing yards in five of his eight games this campaign. The Dolphins are familiar with Allen’s talents, and their offense doesn't seem capable of keeping up with the Bills, even with Tua Tagovailoa healthy now.
FanDuel has set this total at 237.5 for a price of -113. With three of the other four best NFL betting sites putting the total at 242.5, only one is offering the price at -110 or better. That makes bet365 the best place to wager as part of your NFL Week 9 predictions.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Josh Allen Under 0.5 interceptions (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Allen, who sits third in the NFL MVP odds, finally threw his first interception of the season last week after going seven consecutive games without one. It’s been a remarkable turnaround for a player who heaved an interception in 14 regular-season games last year. Will his first interception open the floodgates?
That's unlikely, especially considering his opponent. The Dolphins' defense is averaging just 0.4 interceptions per game, tying them for 23rd leaguewide. Allen also hasn’t thrown a pick against the Dolphins in four of his last six matchups against them.
Because Allen threw a pick last week, the price for the Under is way more favorable than it should be at some of our top NFL parlay betting sites. For example, while FanDuel is asking -120, DraftKings is featuring -145. That latter implies a nearly 5% increase in the probability compared to the FanDuel price.
Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Dolphins vs. Bills odds
Dolphins vs. Bills game info
- When: Sunday, Nov. 3
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 54 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 7-mph from the east
- Favorite: Bills -6 (-110 via BetMGM)
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