Tua Tagovailoa Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds vs. Bills
Tua Tagovailoa leads the 2-5 Miami Dolphins on the road to face the 6-2 Buffalo Bills in an AFC East divisional rivalry matchup on Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
Tagovailoa suffered the third concussion of his NFL career in Week 2, the last time the Dolphins and Bills met. The Dolphins' franchise quarterback enjoyed a fairly successful return to the field despite losing 28-27 to the Arizona Cardinals.
Our Tagovailoa player prop bets focus on the quarterback's chances of hitting pay dirt while targeting two passing props. The below prop picks are part of our NFL Week 9 predictions.
Tua Tagovailoa prop bets Week 9
- Tua Tagovailoa Anytime TD Scorer (+1000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 248.5 Passing Yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 Completions (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Tua Tagovailoa touchdown pick vs. Bills
Tua Tagovailoa anytime touchdown (+1000) ⭐⭐
Tagovailoa’s numerous concussions, including one that kept him sidelined from Week 2 until Week 8, is why oddsmakers offer such a high price on him scoring a rushing touchdown.
Tagovailoa doesn't have a rushing touchdown through three games. While a long time ago, he scored a one-yard rushing touchdown against Buffalo in Week 8 during the 2021 season.
I feel Miami will have to get inside the five-yard line and employ a quarterback sneak for this anytime touchdown prop to hit. With running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane healthy, the odds of it happening are unlikely.
However, Buffalo’s run defense is significantly worse than its pass defense, creating a bit of hope for Tagovailoa to score his first rushing touchdown since November 2021.
Best odds: +1000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 9.09%
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Tua Tagovailoa NFL player props
NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Tua Tagovailoa Under 248.5 Passing Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I'm going to bet Tagovailoa will throw for under 248.5 passing yards against Buffalo on the road in Week 9. The Bills are giving up 5.6 net yards per pass attempt, ranked sixth-best in the NFL this season.
In Week 2 against the Bills, Tagovailoa was on track to reach 250 passing yards before suffering a concussion in the third quarter. He finished his outing with 145 passing yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions.
The Dolphins’ franchise quarterback returned in Week 8 and went 28-for-38 for 234 yards and one touchdown against the Cardinals. Buffalo has held opposing quarterbacks under 249 passing yards in six of eight games, including two in a row with 201 or fewer passing yards against the Titans and Seahawks.
Expect head coach Mike McDaniel to lean into the rushing attack to control time of possession and utilize Mostert and Achane frequently to exploit Buffalo’s porous run defense, which should keep Tagovailoa under 248.5 passing yards.
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 Completions (-130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
I don't think Tagovailoa will get to 249 passing yards, but that doesn’t mean he won’t amass at least 22 completions. He'll frequently target his running backs out of the backfield and tight ends on short crossing routes in the middle of the field.
In two of three games, Tagovailoa cleared 21.5 completions, going Over against Jacksonville and Arizona. The only exception was his partial game against the Bills in Week 2.
Assuming Buffalo takes a decent lead at some point, Tagovailoa will be forced to throw more often, hopefully resulting in completions. Last week, Geno Smith fell just short of this number in a 31-10 loss to the Bills, going 21-29.
Tagovailoa may not be able to rip off a lot of successful deep targets to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but the intermediate and short areas of the field will be open at times.
We’re banking on a game script where the Dolphins trail for extended periods and many designed screens and crossers.
Best odds: -130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 56.52%
Dolphins vs. Bills odds
Dolphins vs. Bills game info
- When: Sunday, Nov. 3
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 57 degrees and cloudy, 6 mph winds
- Favorite: Buffalo -5.5 (-120 via FanDuel)
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