Bills vs. Dolphins TNF Parlay: Thursday Night Football SGP Odds
If you change out his weapons, it won’t be a problem. As he proved in Week 1, Josh Allen will simply do it himself.
Our Bills vs. Dolphins parlay using Thursday Night Football odds from our best sports betting apps envisions Buffalo’s dominance over Miami continuing despite offensive changes.
Allen is still the man for Buffalo, and that’s good enough to get over the hump in Miami as part of your NFL Week 2 predictions.
We also broke down this matchup in our Bills vs. Dolphins prediction.
Bills vs. Dolphins parlay: Thursday Night Football
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Over 48.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Bills +2.5 (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Allen Over 38.5 rushing yards (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +450 via Caesars | Implied probability: 18.18%
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SGP predictions for Bills vs. Dolphins
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Over 48.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The first Bills-Dolphins game last season flew over this total as Buffalo's offense dominated, with Buffalo winning 48-20. However, there was an understated slog in Week 18 that ended with the Bills maintaining supremacy while winning 21-14.
Is the TNF curse finished?
Though it feels like this game could be ripe for the curse of a Thursday night snoozer due to Miami's banged-up running back room, we saw that TNF trend dissipate last season.
The Over hit 10 times on Thursday Night Football last year, and it missed by only the hook on several other occasions. The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens finished right around the pregame total last week, combining to score 47.
Both offenses in this game are too capable for us to ignore a total below 50 points. Aside from BetMGM’s 49.0, the rest of our best sportsbooks list the number at 48.5. DraftKings offers -108 odds on the Over, edging out the value at Caesars (-110) and FanDuel (-115).
Mike Spector also thinks Jaylen Waddle will be contributing to the total going Over in his Bills vs. Dolphins prediction. He sees a similar fate for Waddle's quarterback in his Tua Tagovailoa TNF player prop bets.
Bills +2.5 (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
As SBR’s Esten McLaren outlined, road teams on Thursday Night Football are 38-22-1 against the spread since 2019. It’s a trend that doesn’t make sense, but it’s been pretty decisive over that span.
Same as it ever was?
The TNF road ATS trend combined with the Bills actually getting points in this matchup steers me toward Buffalo. The Bills were the better team twice last season against Miami, and they showed in Week 1 that their offense hasn’t missed a beat after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
Josh Allen is still the engine. He’ll risk life and limb in a divisional matchup to get his offense into the end zone.
The Bills are +2.5 across our best sports betting sites, with the preferred +100 odds at Caesars. FanDuel is featuring strong value at -105 odds. DraftKings stands at -108 odds, with BetMGM bringing up the rear at -110.
Allen Over 38.5 rushing yards (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Miami did a solid job limiting Trevor Lawrence in the passing game last week, allowing just 162 yards through the air. But the Dolphins permitted 4.9 yards per carry, which ranked 25th in the NFL during Week 1.
All about Allen
The threat of a split workload between James Cook and Ray Davis on an underdog team keeps me off Cook’s rushing yardage prop Thursday. However, Allen ran nine times for 39 yards and two touchdowns last week. He also ran for 67 yards during the Week 18 meeting between these two teams last year.
I look for the hard-nosed quarterback to be the primary beneficiary of the Dolphins’ early weakness against the run. Andrew Brennan also thinks Allen will excel as a passer, or at least tally enough completions, in his Josh Allen TNF player prop bets.
DraftKings requires Allen to get to 40-plus yards on the ground, which is poor value compared to the 38.5 line at BetMGM (-120) and Caesars (-108).
FanDuel is posting the most easily attainable rushing line at 37.5 yards (-110), but the overall parlay odds at +416 make Caesars a more attractive option at +450. Though BetMGM’s SGP offers +475 odds, the total points being set at 49 isn't appealing.
A winning $10 wager at Caesars would profit $45.
Meanwhile, Phil Wood is primarily looking to the opposite sideline while choosing his Bills vs. Dolphins player props.
Bills vs. Dolphins odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Bills vs. Dolphins
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- How to watch: Amazon Prime
- Weather: 84 Degrees, 50% Precipitation, 5-mph Winds (partially enclosed stadium)
- Favorite: Dolphins (-135 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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