NFL Trends: How to Bet Saints, 0-2 Teams Entering Week 3
Just two weeks into the regular season, it's hard to put too much stock into any NFL betting trends and takeaways after Sunday's full slate.
That said, after seven months of staring at Super Bowl odds, we finally have some real data to separate the contenders from the pretenders. That's good news for teams like the New Orleans Saints and bad news for the 10 winless teams entering Week 3.
Here's a look at what we learned in Week 2 and how it might apply moving forward:
Saints to the Super Bowl?
It's a little premature to start planning the victory parade down Bourbon Street, but nobody expected New Orleans to make such a statement through the first two weeks of the season.
The Saints rewrote the NFL record books with Sunday's 44-19 win over the Dallas Cowboys, which followed a 47-10 win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 1. New Orleans scored 35 points by halftime, and its first-team offense had scored on 15 consecutive possessions before a fourth-quarter punt.
Since the NFL merger, only one other team has scored at least 44 points in each of its first two games. That would be the 2009 Saints, who hoisted the franchise's lone Lombardi Trophy that year. The only other team to score 90-plus through two games was the 1971 Cowboys, who also won it all.
New Orleans is also one of two teams since the merger (1975 Washington) to open the year with consecutive 25-point wins and score at least 40 points in each.
As a result, the Saints' title odds have shortened to no better than +4000 across our best sports betting sites. That would still return $400 in profit on a $10 wager at Caesars.
Jackson's advice: I'm still a bit skeptical that this sort of run can last against better competition, but it's hard to fully ignore what felt like the most "boring" team entering the year. I don't mind a bet at 40/1, though I'd still favor a few other NFC teams - namely the Packers - at slightly shorter odds.
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Can NFL teams survive 0-2 start?
Look, there's no way around it: losing the first two games of the NFL regular season is one of the most surefire ways to doom your entire campaign.
From 1990 to 2019, only 12% of teams that started 0-2 eventually made the playoffs. Then the NFL expanded the postseason field in 2020 to include 14 teams - seven from each conference - which should have made it easier to overcome a bad start.
In reality? It's been even harder. Only two of 32 teams (6.25%) have started 0-2 and made the playoffs since 2020, and both of those teams - the 2022 Cincinnati Bengals and 2023 Houston Texans - won their next two games and at least seven of their final 10 contests to reach the postseason.
As we broke down last week in our look at Super Bowl winners that lost in Week 1, only three teams have ever won the Super Bowl after starting 0-2. It hasn't happened since the 2007 New York Giants' historic run, and only four teams since have even overcome an 0-1 start.
All of that should concern fans of the Baltimore Ravens (+1600) and Cincinnati Bengals (+2000), both of which are still dealing among the favorites at bet365. Those are among the nine teams staring down an 0-2 record, and the Atlanta Falcons could join them after Monday Night Football.
Jackson's advice: There's some element of caution that should be reserved for 0-2 teams, as the math adds up in a 17-game season. But there's also some circular logic at play - bad teams lose games, so most 0-2 teams will be bad. I think it's too early to write off potential title teams like the Ravens and Bengals, even after a winless start.
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Panthers defying parity laws
One of the great truths of the NFL over the years is that the best teams are always beatable, and the worst teams can win on any given Sunday - no matter how bad they looked the week before.
That was one reason why the Carolina Panthers were such a popular pick this week and even drew sharp action before Sunday's Week 2 kickoff against the Los Angeles Chargers.
After all, teams coming off a loss of 35-plus points were 50-18-2 against the spread (73.5%) when catching at least four points the following week.
Ladies and gentleman, let me introduce you to the 2024 Panthers:
Carolina followed up last week's embarrassment against the Saints with a 26-3 loss to the Chargers. It became the first team since the 2009 Oakland Raiders to finish four consecutive games with zero passing touchdowns and fewer than 150 passing yards - and that team was led by JaMarcus Russell, the biggest bust in NFL history.
The Panthers haven't led a game since last year's Week 15 win over the Atlanta Falcons, and their 31-70 record since David Tepper bought the team in 2018 is the worst in the NFL. Some teams are simply too bad to be saved by variance.
Carolina has already opened as a 7-point underdog against the Raiders by the NFL Week 3 odds across our best sportsbooks, and I'm sure there will be plenty of trends suggesting the value in a bounce-back performance in Week 3. Maybe it'll happen, but I wouldn't let history be your guide for a team that looks this hopeless.
Jackson's advice: I mentioned this last week, but I would be targeting all non-QBs to be the No. 1 pick by the NFL draft odds with the idea that Carolina finishes last and tries to salvage the disastrous Bryce Young trade with more help around him. Pass-rusher Mykel Williams (+2000) and offensive tackle Will Campbell (+2500) feel like great values at FanDuel.
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