NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Wednesday

Check out our NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday's schedule based on the best odds.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: November 8, 2023 5:23 PM EST • 7 minute read

We're analyzing our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Wednesday, based on the best NBA odds.

We almost pulled off another sweep on Monday, but we fell one Paul George assist short of winning all three of our NBA player props. While George didn't win us any units, DeMar DeRozan and Damian Lillard came through.

The NBA might have disappointed with no games on Tuesday, but they are back with a massive slate on Wednesday and some extremely high-profile games.

One of them includes Victor Wembanyama making his first appearance at Madison Square Garden, and we have a player prop bet for this game, but it's probably not on a player or market you would expect.

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

Wednesday’s NBA best bets

Kawhi Leonard Over 3.5 assists vs. Nets (+145 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Kristaps Porzingis Over 16.5 points vs. 76ers (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Julius Randle Over 19.5 points vs. Spurs (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Wednesday’s NBA player props

Kawhi Leonard Over 3.5 assists vs. Nets (+145 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you watched the Los Angeles Clippers take on the New York Knicks in James Harden's debut, you might have noticed that Kawhi Leonard didn't get many touches on offense and seemed to get lost in the shuffle. Not the best way to sell an Over bet on Leonard, but let me explain why this is actually promising.

The Clippers found themselves in a grind-it-out, defensive-style game against the Knicks, and that shouldn't be the case when they take on the Nets on Wednesday. The Nets love to shoot a lot of 3-point shots and play with more pace. Leonard also saw his usage percentage dip by 4% with Harden in the lineup.

The eye-catching part about all of this is that, although Leonard couldn't have been put in a worse spot against the Knicks—low-scoring defensive game, lower usage percentage—he still managed seven potential assists. I doubt the Clippers will allow Leonard to get lost in the mix once again on Wednesday, and with a game with a higher pace on deck, it has me eyeing Leonard's assists prop.

Leonard is projected to drop 3.8 dimes against the Nets on Wednesday, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -105, but it is available at DraftKings at +145. When you go to place this bet, you will probably see a 2.5 with heavy juice on the Over; this bet is on an alternate total. Based on our projection, we were receiving a higher expected value by going after the alternate total.

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Kristaps Porzingis Over 16.5 points vs. 76ers (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When the Boston Celtics made the bold offseason move of trading Marcus Smart for Porzingis, it wasn't for games against the Indiana Pacers or Washington Wizards; it was for matchups against teams like the Philadelphia 76ers. The Celtics needed a different type of offense to create mismatches against other NBA Finals contenders, and we should see Joe Mazzulla utilize that weapon on Wednesday.

Porzingis has the chance to be a matchup nightmare for the 76ers because not only do they have to worry about Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown at the point of attack now, but they also have to worry about Porzingis' ability to stretch the floor. With the right actions, I think the Celtics can generate a bunch of mismatches for Porzingis on the offensive end against this 76ers roster, and that's why Porzingis' points prop has my attention.

Porzingis is projected to score 18.6 points on Wednesday against the 76ers, which allows us to price the Over 16.5 points at -151, but it is available at BetMGM at -110. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 15%.

We've seen this prop steam to -130 or shorter at some of our best sportsbooks, but you have options on where you can bet this to maximize the edge we are seeing. BetMGM is the best price at -110, but FanDuel is right behind them at -111, and BetRivers is at -114.

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Julius Randle Over 19.5 points vs. Spurs (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I knew this bet was coming on Randle, as he has started the NBA season in a shooting slump, shooting 29.9% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc on 6.9 attempts per game. This poor shooting from Randle has caused his points total to drop from 23.5 on opening night down to 19.5 for this matchup against the San Antonio Spurs.

While Randle is undoubtedly in a shooting slump, there's a lot to like about this prop, and that's why it has earned a five-star rating. For starters, Tom Thibodeau has stuck by Randle in this slump as his minutes haven't declined, and he is averaging 34.9 minutes per game.

The other thing you have to love about Randle, well, as a bettor, not if you're a Knicks fan, is that he isn't going to shy away from shooting the ball because of his poor shooting to start the season. You better believe Randle will be shooting 16-plus shots on Wednesday night.

Randle is projected to score 22.3 points against Wembanyama and the Spurs, which allows us to price the Over 19.5 points at -165. This price we're seeing at FanDuel is also a rogue price that will help you increase your edge. A couple of our best sports betting apps have moved this line to 20.5, so put down your coffee and bet this immediately because this price will steam.

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NBA best bets made 11/08/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.