🏀 Warriors vs. Mavericks Player Props Tonight: NBA Picks & Best Bets (March 23)

My Warriors vs. Mavericks player props tonight target Cooper Flagg, who has struggled from beyond the arc this season.

Corey Scott

Last Updated: March 23, 2026 9:30 PM EDT • 3 minute read

Pictured: Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg (32) reacts as we break down our Warriors vs. Mavericks player props tonight. Photo by Kevin Jairaj / Imagn Images.

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📡 SBR Intel: Warriors vs. Mavericks Player Props Tonight

My Warriors vs. Mavericks player props tonight include De'Anthony Melton Over 15.5 points (-120) as my top NBA pick. Melton faces a Dallas defense ranked fifth-worst in defensive efficiency recently. My NBA best bets tonight also include Cooper Flagg Under 0.5 three-pointers made (+178), as Golden State allows the eighth-fewest 3-point attempts in the NBA.

🏀 Best Warriors vs. Mavericks player props tonight: NBA picks for March 23

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.

💰 Pick	💡 Best odds	⚖️ Bet size	🧠 Why I'm making this bet
De'Anthony Melton Over 15.5 points	-120 via DraftKings	1.2u -> 1u	Mavs rank 5th-last in def. efficiency in last 3
Cooper Flagg Under 0.5 three-pointers made	+178 via FanDuel	0.56u -> 1u	Warriors allow 8th-fewest 3-point attempts

Total wagered: 1.76 units | Max profit: 2 units

💰 Best Warriors vs. Mavericks prop bet

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

De'Anthony Melton Over 15.5 points (-120)

I find it hard to believe that the Mavericks are taking the rest of this season seriously, given how poorly they're playing defensively. Dallas is ranked fifth-worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency over the last three games, allowing 129 or more points in each outing.

Meanwhile, Melton has attempted a median of 14.5 field goals per game since the All-Star break and will likely lead the Warriors in shot attempts tonight for a third straight game. DraftKings lists Melton Over 15.5 points at -120, but this bet is good up to -145 on the best sports betting sites.

💸 More NBA best bets for March 23

I fade Bam Adebayo with my Spurs vs. Heat player props tonight.

🔥 More Warriors vs. Mavericks prop picks

Cooper Flagg has the second-shortest odds to win the NBA Rookie of the Year award.

Cooper Flagg Under 0.5 three-pointers made (+178)

I think it's pretty obvious that Flagg will have to work on his 3-point shot in the offseason. He's shooting just 28.4% from deep, and now he faces a Warriors squad allowing the eighth-fewest 3-point attempts per game (35.7) in the NBA.

The only thing Flagg has to play for at this point is trying to catch Kon Knueppel in the Rookie of the Year race - shooting and missing more 3-pointers won't help his odds. Flagg Under 0.5 three-pointers made is +178 at FanDuel, but I would play it up to +150 on the best NBA betting sites.

🏀 More NBA expert picks

Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama are featured in Dustin Saracini's NBA player props tonight.

💵 My betting record for NBA picks

All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.

Bet type	Record	Net profit	ROI
Overall	69-63-3	+4.15 units ✅	2.6% ✅
Player props	67-54-3	+4.31 units ✅	2.8% ✅
Spreads	1-0	+1.5 units ✅	87% ✅
Parlays	1-9	-1.65 units ❌	-54.89% ❌

🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight

Here's my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):

Player	Team	Bet	Odds
Quentin Grimes	76ers	Over 7.5 rebounds + assists	-120
Tobias Harris	Pistons	Over 7.5 rebounds + assists	-165
Amen Thompson	Rockets	Over 26.5 points + rebounds	-125
Alperen Sengun	Rockets	Over 34.5 points + rebounds + assists	-120
Chet Holmgren	Thunder	Over 8.5 rebounds + assists	-140

Quentin Grimes is the No. 1 option on the 76ers right now, so it makes sense to bet his Overs until the market overcorrects (we cashed an alt line on his Over for points on Saturday).

Tobias Harris Over 7.5 rebounds + assists (-165) is the next most popular bet at MGM. Harris has gone over this number in three straight games, as the Pistons are dealing with Cade Cunningham's injury.

💡 How I'm betting Warriors vs. Mavericks

I've allocated 1.76 units for this game - or 1.76% of my bankroll - which is slightly less than I would usually risk on two NBA player props. While I'm confident in both of these bets, they're not priced far from where I'd set them.

I'm also placing a bet with less than a 50% chance of winning - Flagg Under 0.5 three-pointers made (+178) - so I risked less on that wager.

📊 How to manage your bankroll

Our LJ Blut breaks down his approach to bankroll management in sports betting.

🚑 Warriors vs. Mavericks injuries

📺 How to watch Warriors vs. Mavericks

Date: Monday, March 23
Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas)
TV: Streaming on Peacock

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Written by:
Corey Scott

Corey is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review and holds a diploma in Radio and Television Sports Broadcasting from the College of Sports Media in Toronto. He is one of the NBA player-prop specialists at SBR and focuses on the impact of injuries to identify where the market has been slow to adjust. Corey also frequently bets sides in the NBA, NFL, MLB, and CFL, typically using a top-down approach to beat the closing line. His work has appeared across the USA Today Network, Gambling.com Group, and Athlon Sports. With more than a decade of sports betting experience, Corey is familiar with all types of operators, from regulated sportsbooks to less conventional platforms, though he primarily uses Pinnacle and FanDuel. While he rarely bets parlays anymore - unless they are clearly mispriced - his biggest win came from a seven-team parlay at +13675 odds. Corey visits Las Vegas multiple times a year. His favorite resort is the Wynn/Encore, though he can be found at any sportsbook offering an off-market number.