NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Wednesday

We're analyzing our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Wednesday, based on the best NBA odds.

We came very close to another sweep on our Monday edition of NBA best bets, falling just one Darius Garland assist short of sweeping the board. Despite Garland costing us a unit, we still managed to win 0.75 units, thanks to the Toronto Raptors' duo of Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl.

Wednesday brings an interesting slate to the table, as several teams are playing back-to-back following Tuesday's NBA In-Season Tournament affairs.

All eyes will be on the Phoenix Suns, as they are expected to have their Big 3 of Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant all healthy for the very first time.

Hopefully, none of them will put Rudy Gobert in a chokehold and get ejected just one minute into the game as the Suns face the surging Minnesota Timberwolves.

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

• Dallas Mavericks (-225) vs. Washington Wizards (+180)
• New York Knicks (-115) vs. Atlanta Hawks (-105)
• Milwaukee Bucks (-190) vs. Toronto Raptors (+155)
• Boston Celtics (-155) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (+125)
• Orlando Magic (+120) vs. Chicago Bulls (-145)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (+185) vs. Phoenix Suns (-225)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (-450) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (+340)
• Sacramento Kings (-115) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-105)

Wednesday’s NBA best bets

• Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 4.5 assists vs. Raptors (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Kevin Durant Over 3.5 assists vs. Timberwolves (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Wednesday’s NBA player props

Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 4.5 assists vs. Raptors (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Editor's note: Antetokounmpo has since been ruled out for Wednesday's game

I like the price we're getting for this bet, but another reason I favor it is that OG Anunoby was listed as doubtful on the Raptors' injury report for their matchup against the Bucks. He missed the last game due to a finger laceration suffered while performing household chores. Anunoby would typically be the primary defender on Antetokounmpo, but the Raptors will have to deploy a different strategy without their best wing defender.

If the Raptors can't match up Anunoby on Antetokounmpo, it means they will have to send help defense more often than they would have had to previously with Anunoby in the lineup. Help defense and doubles mean open shooters for Antetokounmpo to pass to, and I fully expect Antetokounmpo to rack up the potential assists on Wednesday.

Now let's talk about the numbers, as Antetokounmpo is projected to drop 5.1 dimes against the Raptors. Based on this projection, we can price Antetokounmpo at -135 to go Over the total, but it is available at FanDuel at +100. This bet is showing a positive expected value of 15% based on this projection.

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Kevin Durant Over 3.5 assists vs. Timberwolves (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

For the first time this season, the Suns will have Durant, Booker, and Beal all on the court simultaneously, causing our best sports betting apps to adjust the props for all of the Suns players. As our best sportsbooks work to determine where to trade these props with everyone healthy, I'm confident I have found an edge in the assists prop for Durant.

Durant had been trading with a total of 4.5 assists, with increased juice on the Over, or 5.5 assists in the absence of Booker and Beal. Now, with both players added to the starting lineup, not only does the line drop by two assists to 3.5, but we also get plus money on the Over?

While Booker and Beal will likely move Durant off the ball more, there is also an element in the assists prop that your teammates have to make the shots for you to receive an assist. Not only can Booker and Beal make the shots to help Durant get more assists, but the defense is going to have to rotate more to contend with so many elite scorers in the starting lineup, and a missed defensive rotation equals an easy assist for a dunk or layup.

I don't think this line should have been adjusted to 3.5 with plus money for the Over, even though the Suns are playing the best defensive team in the Timberwolves.

Durant is projected to have 4.2 assists on Wednesday against the Timberwolves, allowing us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -145, but it is available at FanDuel for +110. This +110 being offered by FanDuel is a rogue price, as most of our other best sports betting sites are trading it at -115. If the +110 disappears, turn your attention to BetRivers, which also has the Over trading at plus money.

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NBA best bets made 11/15/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET

NBA betting odds pages

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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• Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)