MLB Player Prop Bets Today: 8-27
We have a perennial MVP candidate, last year's AL Cy Young winner, and Paul Skenes' fellow flamethrowing teammate as part of today's MLB player prop bets. Who will shine on Tuesday?
Jared Jones, who was once among the favorites by the MLB Rookie of the Year odds before teammate Paul Skenes took the baseball world by storm, makes his return from the injured list on Tuesday to take on the Chicago Cubs. Can he immediately return to form?
Meanwhile, Bryce Harper looks to keep his momentum going after delivering a walk-off hit for his Philadelphia Phillies on Monday. What will he do for an encore?
We're also fading Gerrit Cole as the New York Yankees are in Washington to take on the Nationals. Is it simply because I'm a Red Sox fan? Of course not (maybe).
Finally, New York Mets left-hander Sean Manaea is in tough against the feisty Arizona Diamondbacks, and we think he makes an early exit on the West Coast.
Today’s MLB player props
MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Jared Jones Under 5.5 strikeouts (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+300 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Gerrit Cole Under 6.5 strikeouts (-129 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Sean Manaea Under 4.5 strikeouts (+132 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
MLB prop bets for Tuesday
Prediction: Jared Jones Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Before Skenes melted our minds with his jaw-dropping fastball and otherworldly "splinker," the Pirates had another rookie pitcher putting in work.
Jones was long among the contenders to win NL Rookie of the Year before he hit the IL at the beginning of July. He returns on Tuesday to take on the Cubs, who are coming off an 18-8 win against these same Pirates.
The right-hander started the season in very Skenes-like fashion, racking up 52 strikeouts across his first 41 innings to go along with a 2.63 ERA. However, he managed only 46 Ks over his next 50 innings before hitting the IL.
Which Jones will we see on Tuesday? The projections are hesitant to suggest he'll immediately return to form. He's projected for just 4.81 punchouts against the Cubs.
We're getting roughly 21% positive expected value on this bet through these -115 odds via BetMGM.
Game info:
- Cubs vs. Pirates
- Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Cubs (-130 via bet365)
- Total: 8 via bet365
Prediction: Bryce Harper to hit a home run ⭐⭐
Best odds: +300 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 25%
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What could Harper do for an encore after delivering a massive walk-off hit against the World Series odds-contender Houston Astros on Monday? How about a nuke off veteran right-hander Justin Verlander?
Harper is still struggling to hit for power lately, as he has just two home runs over the last 30 days. However, he's in a good spot to blast one out on Tuesday. Our Sean Tomlinson has a trio of players he thinks might also hit dingers in his home run predictions & prop bets, and I look at Aaron Judge's home run odds.
Based on Harper's home run projections, we're getting better than 20% +EV on this bet through these +300 odds at FanDuel. Meanwhile, Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - offers a Harper homer at +264 after opening at +280.
Our other best sports betting sites are hovering around that +270 mark, making this somewhat of a rogue number.
Game info:
- Astros vs. Phillies
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Phillies (-150 via bet365)
- Total: 8.5 via bet365
Prediction: Gerrit Cole Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -129 via Caesars | Implied probability: 56.33%
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OK, so I'm not actually fading Cole simply because I'm a Boston fan.
The big right-hander hasn't looked especially impressive since returning from the IL. He's had some games when he racked up strikeouts (10 against the Texas Rangers, eight on three occasions) but mixed that with duds (two Ks and five walks in his last start, four over 5 2/3 in back-to-back outings vs. the Toronto Blue Jays and Mets).
Overall, Cole's K/9 is right around last year's mark of 9.56, though that represented a massive drop-off from what we became accustomed to in years prior (despite it being good enough for him to win the AL Cy Young).
Cole is projected to record just 5.6 punchouts on Tuesday, well below the seven he'd need to clear this total. We're getting nearly 19% +EV on this bet as a result.
Game info:
- Yankees vs. Nationals
- Venue: Nationals Park, Washington
- First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Yankees (-225 via bet365)
- Total: 9 via bet365
Prediction: Sean Manaea Under 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +132 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.10%
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Manaea has given the Mets' rotation a massive boost this season, pitching to the best ERA of his career and logging a very solid number of innings.
However, this Diamondbacks team isn't kind to opposing pitchers. Arizona owns the fourth-best team wRC+ and fifth-lowest strikeout rate for the season, and those numbers become even more absurd if you track the data back to the beginning of July.
Since July 1, the Diamondbacks own a team wRC+ of 134, easily the best mark in baseball (the Aaron Judge and Juan Soto-led Yankees are second at 125). Additionally, their 18.6% K rate is the fourth-lowest.
This is likely why Manaea's strikeout projection on Tuesday is only 4.47. That isn't a huge buffer from the five he needs to go Over this total, but these +132 odds via bet365 still provide us with better than 22% +EV.
Game info:
- Mets vs. Diamondbacks
- Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks (-120 via bet365)
- Total: 8.5 via bet365
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