Aaron Judge Home Run Odds Today: Will All Rise vs. Cardinals on Saturday?
Aaron Judge is chasing down his own history-making home run barrage from 2022, and we're tracking his odds to go yard each day until the end of the season.
Judge has now gone four whole games without hitting a dinger, which is a prolonged drought by his sky-high standards. In an even more rare feat, the MLB MVP odds favorite didn't even reach base on Friday when the New York Yankees opened their series against the St. Louis Cardinals with a 6-3 win.
He still sits at 51 homers, and his American League record of 62 is remains within reach with 26 games to go.
Will the masher return to form when his club takes the field on Saturday afternoon against the Cardinals? Let's dive in to the Aaron Judge home run odds.
Aaron Judge home run odds today
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites | 🔥 = best available odds | ❄️ = worst available odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +220 | +240 🔥 | +225 | +190 ❄️ | +230 |
There's often an outlier in the wrong direction among our best sportsbooks when it comes to the pricing for a Judge liftoff. And today that unwanted title belongs to Caesars, with its +190 odds far lower than the rest.
That number is also in another time zone compared to the +240 at FanDuel, which you should throw yourself at now if a Judge long ball wager is going to be part of your Saturday fun. Pinnacle, which is home to one of the most respect trading teams in the industry, is listing a Judge homer at +214.
The implied probability from FanDuel is 29.41%, and a $10 bet would result in a $24 payout.
Will Judge homer today?
Prediction: Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+240 via FanDuel)
Kyle Gibson takes to the mound for the Cardinals on Saturday, and he's been stumbling through a rather horrendous August as the month comes to a close. The veteran hasn't been enjoying a great season overall with his 4.54 ERA, but that's spiked to 6.91 in August.
Being susceptible to the long ball has played a significant role in Gibson limping along recently. He's allowed six homers during the month, including one during his last start and a whopping four against the Cincinnati Reds on Aug. 14.
Similar to his matchup against Fedde on Friday, Gibson doesn't possess overpowering stuff. As a result, he leans heavily on the sort of breaking pitches that Judge feasts on and hits to the upper reaches of ballparks.
Most notably, that includes a sinker that he throws the most of his six-pitch arsenal at 27.1% of the time. Judge has been scorching sinkers while posting a whopping 68.7% hard-hit rate, according to Baseball Savant.
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Alternate Judge prediction for Saturday: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
This is a fine fallback if you're not quite feeling bold enough to back Judge for a homer.
Be sure to head toward FanDuel again, as it's offering a slight edge over the rest of our best sports betting sites while sitting at -110 for Judge to go Over 1.5 total bases. Others are mostly offering around -115.
Much of the same reasoning as above applies, just with a lower bar to clear against a starter who's been rather hittable lately. Part of Gibson's August woes has been allowing hits in bunches, with three of his five starts during the month featuring seven-plus hits. His slugging percentage allowed has also risen dramatically, going from .462 in July to .557 in August.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
Aaron Judge stats & facts
| Games | 133 |
| Home runs | 51 |
| Runs | 104 |
| RBIs | 123 |
| Stolen bases | 7 |
| Average | .331 |
| OBP | .464 |
| SLG | .725 |
| fWAR | 9.8 |
How many home runs does Judge have?
Judge has 51 home runs entering play on Aug. 31.
When was Judge's last home run?
Judge last homered on Aug. 25. He smacked two long balls against the Colorado Rockies at Yankee Stadium.
How many home runs will Judge hit this season?
Judge is projected to finish with 60 home runs this season.
What is the home run record?
The American League record is 62, which Judge set in 2022. The MLB single-season home run record is 73, set by Barry Bonds in 2001.
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