Home Run Predictions & Prop Bet Odds 8-27
Baseballs getting launched to another hemisphere is a joyous time for most involved, and that can potentially include you through our home run predictions.
And that's especially true on Tuesday, with three sluggers who regularly try to deposit balls in the second deck facing ideal matchups. That includes Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, who's set to tee off on a struggling Jeffrey Springs.
Likewise, Tyler O'Neill is positioned to pounce on the inconsistent Yariel Rodriguez, and Teoscar Hernandez looks to continue a sizzling August.
Additionally, Andrew Brennan is looking to Bryce Harper to go deep in his MLB player prop bets and a look at Aaron Judge's home run odds for Tuesday. Let's dive in with three more home run predictions.
Home run predictions for Tuesday
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Teoscar Hernandez (+300 via Betway) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Cole Irvin), at Dodger Stadium⭐⭐⭐
- Tyler O'Neill (+350 via Betway) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Yariel Rodriguez), at Fenway Park ⭐⭐⭐
- Cal Raleigh (+350 via Betway) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Jeffrey Springs), at T-Mobile Park ⭐⭐⭐
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
Best home run props today
Teoscar Hernandez (RHH) vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), Dodger Stadium
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 27 | HR/9: 1.4 |
| SLG%: .485 | HR/FB%: 7.9 |
| FB%: 26.5 | FB%: 30.0 |
| Hard hit %: 47.1 | Hard hit %: 42.1 |
This play is more about picking on Cole Irvin, but doing it with the always gleeful and seed-throwing Teoscar Hernandez is certainly appealing.
Irvin has regularly been a launch pad this season, and his Baseball Savant page resembles the coldest depths of Antarctica. His expected batting average allowed, expected slugging, and expected ERA all sit in the bottom 4% of MLB.
What's even more inviting for a slugger like Hernandez is that Irvin's hard-hit percentage has spiked dramatically compared to last season. He sat at 34.9% then and is now getting rocked to the tune of 42.1%.
For his part, Hernandez has been red-hot throughout August while posting a .537 slugging percentage, up significantly from his .473 during July.
Best odds: +300 via Betway | Implied probability: 25.0%
Terms and conditions apply.
Tyler O'Neill (RHH) vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), Fenway Park
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 23 | HR/9: 1.2 |
| SLG%: .525 | HR/FB%: 9.9 |
| FB%: 29.8 | FB%: 31.1 |
| Hard hit %: 49.0 | Hard hit %: 37.5 |
Tyler O'Neill is enjoying a similar surge, but he's been cruising throughout the season. The Boston Red Sox outfielder is posting a .525 slugging percentage this year, far better than his .403 last year.
He's achieved much of his success while feasting on fastballs, and especially four-seamers, a pitch O'Neill is slugging an astronomical .594 against. That's the primary reason he's well-positioned on Tuesday, as Toronto Blue Jays starter Yariel Rodriguez leans exceedingly heavily on his four-seamer while throwing it 43.5% of the time.
The inexperienced Rodriguez has flashed brilliantly at times, and he's seemed to be navigating a learning process during others. It's been more of the latter lately, as Rodriguez has given up 9 earned runs and four homers over his last two outings.
Best odds: +350 via Betway | Implied probability: 22.22%
Cal Raleigh (SH) vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), T-Mobile Park
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 27 | HR/9: 1.6 |
| SLG%: .429 | HR/FB%: 10.3 |
| FB%: 37.8% | FB%: 27.5 |
| Hard hit %: 50.5% | Hard hit %: 49.3 |
Cal Raleigh is the classic masher who's always looking to send a ball to Jupiter. His hard-hit percentage is sky-high accordingly, and it sits among the top 7% leaguewide. But his 29.8 strikeout rate puts him in the bottom 10%.
A hitter with that approach is ideally suited in this matchup against Jeffrey Springs of the Tampa Bay Rays, who often hears a loud thwack right after he releases the ball. Springs has been struggling to limit hard contact since his return from Tommy John surgery. His hard-hit percentage allowed has endured a meteoric rise as a result, going from 30.8% last year to 49.3% now.
He often labors to get through even a few innings, needing 82 pitchers to last just 3 1/3 innings against the woeful Oakland Athletics during his last start. Raleigh should still be salivating when Springs exits, as the Rays' bullpen has allowed the third-most homers in MLB this campaign (68).
Best odds: +350 via Betway | Implied probability: 22.22%
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