Washington vs. Broncos Week 8 Picks: Can Denver Stop the Slide?

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: October 27, 2021 10:27 AM EDT • 3 min 29 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

DENVER, COLORADO - OCTOBER 03: Von Miller #58 of the Denver Broncos takes the field with teammates before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at Empower Field At Mile High on October 03, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Washington Football Team (2-5) and Denver Broncos (3-4) are both riding losing skids of at least three games. We look at who can break the slide in our Washington vs Broncos picks.

The Broncos (3-4 against the spread) are 3-point home favorites over Washington (1-6 ATS) at many of the top U.S sportsbooks with a projected total of 43.5 points. The seat under Denver head coach Vic Fangio is getting hotter with each loss, so this is an important home game against what is statistically the easiest opponent the Broncos have faced since September.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 8 matchup between Washington and the Broncos (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Washington vs. Broncos Week 8 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, October 31, 4:25 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, COWeather: Low 50s, mostly cloudy

Washington vs. Broncos Odds Analysis

A spread like Denver -3 is a common one for home teams, but home favorites are just 27-36 ATS and 38-25 straight up this season. In his career, Fangio is 6-3 SU at home against teams that finish the season with a losing record. That's going ahead and including the win over the New York Jets this year, as they look destined to be losers again. Washington’s 1-6 ATS record is the worst in the NFL this season.

Neither team played in a game that broke 34 total points in Week 7. On the season, the Over is 2-5 in Denver's games and 4-3 in Washington's games. Washington has allowed a league-high 210 points this season but Denver is averaging only 16.0 points per game during this four-game losing skid.

Washington vs. Broncos Picks

Broncos -3 (-115) (????)Over 43.5 (-110) (???)

Washington vs. Broncos Predictions

Broncos -3 (-115)

I think this matchup is a perfect representation of what the Broncos get with QB Teddy Bridgewater at the helm. A home game against a bad team is a situation where he can thrive, but you cannot expect him to hang with a good team or outscore a great quarterback. Washington brings neither to this matchup; the defense has been a laughingstock and QB Taylor Heinicke is a mistake-prone backup.

Coming into this season, Bridgewater was 35-14-1 ATS (.714) for the best spread record by a starting quarterback with a minimum of 30 starts since 2001. Bridgewater joins QBs Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford as the only trio since 2001 to win over 70 percent of their starts against non-winning teams and under 20 percent against winning teams.

What happened in Denver this year? The Broncos were 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS against awful teams like the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets. Bridgewater was averaging 8.7 yards per attempt with a 116.4 passer rating. Then, Denver faced better competition in the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Cleveland Browns, and went 0-4 SU and ATS. Bridgewater is down to 6.4 yards per attempt and an 87.7 passer rating over the last month once the competition got tougher.

Bridgewater is going to play to the level of the competition, and a Washington defense that has allowed a league-high 19 touchdowns to four interceptions should be a good matchup for him. The Broncos offense is still quite talented with WRs Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick, TE Noah Fant, and two good running backs. The extra days to prepare after playing last on Thursday Night Football should help as Bridgewater looked a bit stiff in the Cleveland game. He took five sacks against the Raiders just four days earlier.

Ted the Spread will get back to his winning ways against a cupcake opponent. If not, then an interim coach may be wanting to start QB Drew Lock in a few weeks.

Over 43.5 (-110)

A huge problem for Denver’s offense has been third down. It ranks 27th in football with a conversion rate of just 31.8 percent. The good news is that Washington’s third-down defense allows a conversion a league-worst 56.9% of the time.

While the Washington defense has been a letdown all season, the Denver defense has had a rough month, too. This unit allowed a lot of big pass plays to the Ravens, Steelers, and Raiders, then was chewed up on the ground by Cleveland’s third-string running back D’Ernest Johnson. Do not be fooled by the 17-14 final in that game, as there were only 15 legitimate possessions between the two teams. There was also a missed field goal, and the Browns ran out the clock to end the game. It was more offensive than the final score suggests.

Likewise, Washington’s 24-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers last week was closer than the score suggests. Washington had 430 total yards and 25 first downs; however, the offense finished 0-for-4 in the red zone. The Green Bay defense had given up a touchdown on 100 percent of opponent red zone drives coming into Week 7. It was a laughably bad day of ball security in the red zone. Washington scoring only 13 points on the Kansas City Chiefs the previous week was more alarming than this 10-point output in Green Bay.

Both teams have some very talented skill players who should be able to make this interesting. I can see a 27-20 final that hits the Over and the cover for the home team with our Washington and Broncos picks.