NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 13: Expect Response From Panthers, Commanders
Heading into a light NFL slate on Sunday, we’re backing a pair of teams coming off coaching changes in our NFL upset picks for Week 13 based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
The NFL's coaching fraternity experienced a dark weekend right after Black Friday. After disappointing losses, the Carolina Panthers and Washington Commanders shook up their staffs, signaling to their fan bases that the clubs are still hoping to salvage something from their 2023 campaigns.
Carolina fired head coach Frank Reich, while Washington let its defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio, walk.
While those two teams aim to turn things around, the Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) hope to keep rolling as they host the San Francisco 49ers (8-3) in a highly-anticipated clash of NFC heavyweights.
In addition to our NFL Week 13 predictions and NFL Week 13 player props and best bets, here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 13 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL upset picks: Week 13
- Carolina Panthers (+210 via bet365) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Washington Commanders (+360 via FanDuel) vs. Miami Dolphins ⭐⭐⭐
- Philadelphia Eagles (+126 via FanDuel) vs. San Francisco 49ers ⭐⭐⭐
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NFL upset predictions
Panthers ML vs. Buccaneers (+210 via Bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Carolina Panthers cleaned house after last week’s 17-10 loss to the Tennessee Titans, firing head coach Frank Reich along with their quarterback coach and running back coach.
The move signifies that even at 1-10, the Panthers are determined to salvage something from this season, like determining whether they made a mistake drafting Bryce Young as their franchise quarterback. The debut of new leadership could breathe some life into the struggling squad.
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The last time Carolina’s players received a chance to hit the mental reset button, they returned from their bye week to upset the Houston Texans 15-13 for their only victory of the season.
I don’t see why they can’t do the same against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that's lost six of its last seven games following a 3-1 start. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is playing through an ankle injury that forced him to briefly leave a 27-20 loss in Week 12 to the Indianapolis Colts.
Tampa Bay’s offense isn’t likely to pull away from the Panthers here after scoring more than 20 points just once since the start of October.
See our Panthers vs. Buccaneers NFL player props for more on this matchup.
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Commanders ML vs. Dolphins (+360 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
The Washington Commanders (4-8) also made a leadership change this past week, canning veteran defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio following a humiliating 45-10 loss on Thanksgiving Day to the Dallas Cowboys.
Head coach Ron Rivera will take over the defense for the rest of the season, so we might start to see more accountability from the underachieving bunch. Don’t forget, this was a team that gave the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles all they could handle over a pair of games during 2023, and the Commanders are capable of throwing against anybody with league passing leader Sam Howell.
Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are coming off a 34-13 victory over the New York Jets on Black Friday, but the offense wasn’t nearly as dominant as that score suggests.
Miami managed just one offensive touchdown until the fourth quarter, breaking the game open on a 99-yard interception return for a TD on the final play of the first half, and Tua Tagovailoa committed multiple turnovers for the third time in his last four outings.
Miami has lost three of its last four trips outside the state of Florida, and the Dolphins are now without star linebacker Jaelan Phillips for the rest of the year.
Philip Wood dives deeper into this matchup with his Dolphins vs. Commanders NFL player props.
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Eagles ML vs. 49ers (+126 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Pick any popular NFL betting angle, situational spot, or narrative, and each one points to a San Francisco 49ers victory in this heavyweight showdown that could ultimately decide the top seed in the NFC.
San Francisco is on extra rest after whipping the Seattle Seahawks 31-13 on Thanksgiving night. The Niners have recorded a combined winning margin of 92-30 in three straight games, and they're hungry to avenge their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2023 conference championship game, when starting quarterback Brock Purdy was hurt on the first series.
The Eagles have been barely winning recently, needing OT and some favorable officiating calls to edge the Buffalo Bills 37-34 in Week 12. That was Philly’s fourth straight single-possession win.
All of those angles, situations, and narratives are built into this point spread, making Philadelphia a 3-point home underdog. No matter how unimpressive Jalen Hurts and the Eagles may have looked recently, they’re still winning games, becoming just the fourth team in NFL history to take at least 10 of its first 11 contests in back-to-back seasons.
Hurts is 27-3 in his last 30 games as a starter and 1-0 during that stretch as an underdog (a 21-17 victory in October on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs.) This game should be priced closer to a coin toss at our best sportsbooks, giving us plenty of value to back the resilient home dog.
This pick can be paired with Mike Spector's 49ers vs. Eagles prediction.
NFL upset picks made 11/29/2023 at 5:25 p.m. ET.
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