NFL Best Bets for Week 10: ATS Picks & Player Props This Week

My NFL best bets for Week 10 keep in mind how dominant favorites were last week (14-1 SU, 11-4 ATS) and analyze how oddsmakers have likely reacted to that trend when making lines this week. Since I’ve cashed a three-leg moneyline parlay each of the last two weeks, I felt compelled to include another such wager as part of my NFL Week 10 predictions, while surrounding that mostly with my top player props.

NFL best bets for Week 10

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Picks submitted: Nov. 12 at 1:45 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change. 

Total wagered: 5 units | Profit if all picks win: 4.79 units

Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 10.

Jaguars/Bills/Seahawks ML parlay (-110 via DraftKings)

The Jaguars have won back-to-back games, which doesn’t bode well for a Titans team that has lost 11 straight games to teams on a winning streak. This is also a matchup of a Jacksonville team that added at the trade deadline (Jessie Bates, Jordan Davis, Davon Godchaux) and a Tennessee team that traded away pieces like safety Amani Hooker.

Buffalo should have the edge, even off a short week against a physical Vikings team, against a Jets squad that is 5-21 under head coach Aaron Glenn (and 0-8 in division games).

And even though Drew Lock is starting for the Seahawks, I don’t expect Fernando Mendoza to overcome Las Vegas’ dead-last opponents’ points per game average (29.8) and opponents’ yards per game average (385).

Play to: -135

Patriots-Lions Over 50.5 (-120 via FanDuel)

Detroit is coming off its fourth straight win and just allowed a season-low nine points and total yards (228). It has allowed 15.5 points per game during the winning streak, and its three straight games allowing 20 or fewer points are tied for its longest streak over the last 10 seasons (2021 Weeks 10-12).

While Brian Branch’s return helped solidify the Lions defense on the back end, a lot of their improved play has been due to weaker competition. Drake Maye is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (11), but he also has had 3+ passing and rushing touchdowns in six straight games. 

I expect a shootout, especially since New England has allowed 400 yards twice in the last three games.

Play to: 51.5 (+100)

Best NFL player props for Week 10

Ollie Gordon II Over 69.5 rushing yards (-120 via bet365)

Miami should put more of an emphasis on the running game now that Kyle McCord is under center in replace of the injured Malik Willis. But the truth is the Dolphins were already heavily leaning on Ollie Gordon, who has averaged 19.5 carries per game over the last four games.

This is a great matchup for the Dolphins to feed their workhorse back once again, as the Colts allow the fifth-most rushing yards and fifth-most receiving yards to running backs. Gordon should also find some gaping holes, as Indianapolis allows the most yards before contact.

Several top sports betting sites have Gordon's O/U ranging from 72.5-74.5, so we're getting a great number at bet365.

Play to: Over 72.5 (-110)

Parker Washington anytime touchdown scorer (+135 via DraftKings)

I’m hesitant to back Parker Washington’s other props like his receptions or receiving yards total given that game script might dictate a lower-volume passing attack with the Jaguars heavily favored. But Washington has already been a splash hit despite Trevor Lawrence averaging the 22nd-most pass attempts per game, which makes these plus-money odds appealing.

Washington leads the team in target share, air yard share, target share against man and zone, in the red zone, and on third down. His overall 24.8% target share is 13th-highest among wide receivers. 

Washington is a threat to score from anywhere, as the Titans allow the third-highest rate of explosive pass plays and the third-most yards to wideouts.

Play to: +120

Omar Cooper Jr. Over 28.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM)

Omar Cooper Jr. is coming off the best volume game of his young career (11 targets). He has now either topped 100 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in two of the last four games.

With Garrett Wilson likely to suit up opposite him, Wilson will likely draw primary coverage from Christian Benford, Buffalo’s best cornerback.

It might only take one chunk play to help a field stretcher like Cooper go over this total, as Geno Smith ranks third in deep yards, completion percentage and yards per attempts on deep throws.

Play to: Over 33.5 (-110)