Texas vs. LSU Prediction: Week 11 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 14)
It’s a virtual College Football Playoff elimination game for No. 21 LSU as it hosts No. 6 Texas, and my Texas vs. LSU prediction expects the Tigers to cover the spread in a raucous Baton Rouge night environment while playing to keep their CFP hopes alive.
In the first game that the Longhorns have played in Baton Rouge since 1953, kickoff from Tiger Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday (ABC). LSU is a 3.5-point betting favorite.
Texas vs. LSU picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| LSU -3.5 | -120 via BetMGM | 1 unit to profit 0.83 units |
| Under 46.5 | -110 via BetMGM | 1 unit to profit 0.91 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 11 at 2 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.74 units
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Texas vs. LSU prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
LSU -3.5 (-120 via BetMGM)
In LSU’s three losses it has given up 31 points, with the only instance at home coming last week against Alabama. But perhaps that should just be chalked up to the Crimson Tide being Lane Kiffin’s bugaboo, as he is now 0-6 against them in his career as a head coach.
I’m backing the Tigers in this matchup based on them having one of the country’s best pass rushes while facing a Longhorns offensive line that is one of the shakiest in pass protection. LSU averages a sack on one of every eight opponents’ dropbacks (2nd in FBS) and usually gets home by rushing four and deploying one of the lowest blitz rates in the country. Conversely, Texas quarterbacks are sacked on one of every 11 dropbacks (127th).
Texas doesn’t have the running game to take pressure off opposing pass rushes, ranking 122nd in yards per carry (122nd). That issue is compounded by the injury to running back Hollywood Smothers (283 rushing yards, 4.1 yards per carry).
📡 SBR Edge: Home favorites in ranked vs. ranked matchups
Home favorites have covered 60.9% of games (101-65-2 ATS record) between ranked opponents over the last five seasons. And in that span, ranked teams coming off double-digit losses are 61-40 ATS (60.4%).
LSU's offense can wear down Texas' defense
The Longhorns defense ranks second in the country in yards per play allowed (4.1) because they don’t allow explosive plays and keep everything in front of them. But that “bend but don’t break” mentality is a dangerous way to make a living against an LSU offense that averages an FBS-best 28 first downs per game, especially playing at the tempo it plays and not allowing time for defensive substitutions.
Because of Texas’ passive approach defensively, it has faced 23 field goal attempts, which is more than all but four teams in the country. If LSU can positively regress from a 27% touchdown conversion rate on goal-to-go opportunities, that will go a long way to the Tigers building a lead and being able to pin their ears back even more defensively.
Play to: -4 (-105), pass at -4.5 or higher
Score prediction: LSU 23, Texas 17
Live Texas vs. LSU odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Texas vs. LSU matchup page.
Texas vs. LSU opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas +155 | LSU -185
- Spread: Texas +4.5 (-110) | LSU -4.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-108) | Under 46.5 (-110)
Texas vs. LSU weather
Temperatures for this game are forecasted in the low 60s with just a 2% chance of precipitation and winds light at 9 mph ENE.
Latest Texas vs. LSU injuries
Texas:
- Hollywood Smothers, RB - Out
- Colin Simmons, DE - Questionable
- Cam Coleman, WR - Questionable
LSU:
- Whit Weeks, LB - Questionable
How to watch Texas vs. LSU: Week 11
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 14
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Tiger Stadium (Baton Rouge, La.)
- TV/Streaming: ABC
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