Dolphins vs. Commanders NFL Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions
The Washington Commanders host the Miami Dolphins with one of the most lopsided betting lines of the week as we make our best Dolphins vs. Commanders NFL player props for Week 13 based on the NFL odds at our NFL prop betting sites.
The Miami Dolphins beat the New York Jets 34-13 in Week 12 to move to 8-3. The offense hasn't been quite as prolific in recent weeks as it was to start the season, but Miami continues to win games with improved defensive play.
The Washington Commanders trailed the Dallas Cowboys by just 10 points entering the fourth quarter of last week’s game. However, Dallas outscored Washington 25-0 over the final 15 minutes, as the Commanders lost their third straight game to fall to 4-8. They share last place in the NFC East with the New York Giants.
In addition to our NFL Week 13 predictions and NFL Week 13 player props, here are our best Dolphins vs. Commanders NFL player props for Week 13 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dolphins vs. Commanders NFL player props: Week 13
Tua Tagovailoa Over 281.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tagovailoa has cleared this number only once in his last three games. Yet, this is an absolute must-play against the current Commanders’ defense. They’ve allowed two of the last three quarterbacks they’ve faced to throw for over 300 yards against them. The only one who didn’t was New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito, who threw for a career-high 246.
The Commanders are allowing 264.6 passing yards per game, third-worst in the NFL, and Tagovailoa and the Dolphins have shown they won’t stop throwing even if they get up big on a team. The Commanders are in the middle of the pack regarding rushing yards allowed per game, so even if the Dolphins run the ball well, most of their damage will be done through the air.
Four of the five major NFL prop betting sites have this total listed at 281.5. FanDuel has it listed at 280.5, and while that’s the lowest number available at our best sportsbooks, they’re asking -114 for it. Instead of wagering there, we recommend playing at bet365 for one more yard and a better price than our other best sports betting apps.
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Sam Howell Over 39.5 pass attempts (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
FanDuel has listed this prop one attempt higher than any other major sportsbook. However, Howell should crush this number, so there is no reason to take the lower number for the much more expensive price.
Howell has thrown the ball at least 42 times in six consecutive games. During that stretch, he’s averaging 45.3 pass attempts per game. Why would he suddenly throw less than 40 passes against the second-highest-scoring team in the NFL?
The Dolphins have the sixth-best run defense in football. The Commanders have the 25th-best rushing attack in the league. Though Howell may not succeed much against an improved Dolphins’ secondary, the Commanders will run offensive plays. Trailing the entire game, Howell will once again throw the ball more than 40 times.
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Curtis Samuel Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Samuel hauled in a season-high nine catches for his first 100-yard game of the year last week against the Cowboys. The performance came after back-to-back weeks of single-digit receiving yards from the Commanders’ second-leading receiver.
Samuel is set to have another huge game in a game where the Commanders will be throwing a lot. With Miami cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey locking up Washington wideouts Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson for most of the game, Samuel will receive most of Howell’s 40+ targets for the second week in a row.
Every major one of our best NFL prop betting sites has this prop listed at 36.5 yards. At the moment, bet365 is offering the best price of any of them. Because Samuel isn’t a huge name, we don’t expect this line to change much, even though he has a solid matchup.
Dolphins vs. Commanders player props made Friday at 12:54 p.m. ET
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