NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 11: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

We have a special focus on the AFC as we make our trio of underdogs to bet this week.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 12, 2024 10:40 AM EST • 5 minute read

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor runs with the ball as we make our Week 11 NFL underdog picks. — Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor runs with the ball during a game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Photo by: Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

Last week, we correctly identified two of the five NFL underdogs that won outright, and we are back to continue the momentum with another trio of NFL upset picks for Week 11.

While NFL favorites went 9-5 SU in Week 10, there were no upsets of any of the top five moneyline favorites
The Chiefs are 9-0 for the third time in franchise history, but are road underdogs against the Bills
Two division leaders (Steelers and Falcons) are underdogs this week

Our upset picks profited our backers 1.76 units after a 2-1 week last week, which would have been a perfect sweep if not for the Jaguars losing to the Vikings despite not allowing a touchdown.

Which ‘dogs do we expect to bark this week?

NFL underdogs to back: Week 11

NFL odds as of Tuesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Colts (+160 via bet365) at Jets ⭐⭐⭐
Browns (+100 via BetMGM) at Saints ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bengals (+105 via bet365) at Chargers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 11 upset predictions

NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Colts (+160) ⭐⭐⭐

Things seem to go from bad to worse for the Jets each week. New York’s 3-7 start is its worst since 2021, and Aaron Rodgers has lost seven of his first 10 starts for the first time in his career.

The Jets are coming off a season-low in points in a 31-6 loss to Arizona, and they have now lost four of five games under interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich.

Indianapolis has averaged 17.6 points per game during a three-game losing streak. It is staying committed to Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback after he committed six turnovers over the last two games.

Even if Indianapolis continues to get subpar quarterback play, it would be wise to rely on a strong running game with Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor churned out 107 yards on 16 carries in the first half last week, but he only had five carries in the second half, en route to the Colts’ first loss not decided by one possession this year.

BetMGM is on the low end of the market with +145 odds (carrying a 40.82% implied probability) to back the Colts. I am getting the best value making this wager at bet365, where a $10 winning wager would net $16 in profits.

Best odds: +160 via bet365 | Implied probability: 38.46%

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Browns (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Saints snapped a seven-game losing streak in their first game under interim head coach Darren Rizzi. And while Alvin Kamara continues to impress with three straight games of 100-plus scrimmage yards, the Browns defense is built to limit New Orleans’ best playmaker.

Cleveland may be off to its worst start (2-7) since 2017, but it still figures to be a much more explosive offensive team with Jameis Winston under center. Winston was a big reason for the team’s 27-10 loss to the Chargers in the last game, but he is capable of leading the team to a road upset this week if he takes better care of the football (he threw three interceptions in the second half against Los Angeles).

The Browns are 3-1 SU off a bye since 2020, and that rest advantage makes them a dangerous underdog this week.

I am taking advantage at plus-money odds where I can find them, as the line movement has gone towards the Browns (Cleveland has -105 odds at three of the top sports betting sites).

Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50.00%

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Bengals (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Chargers have won three consecutive games by double digits and are the only team in the league to hold each of their opponents to 20 or fewer points this season. But I walked away impressed with the Bengals being a two-point conversion away from upsetting the Ravens on the road last Thursday night, and I expect them to seal the deal with an upset in primetime this week.

Joe Burrow fell to 0-6 SU in his career as an underdog in primetime games. But that first win seems imminent, as he is 4-2 ATS in that split.

Cincinnati may have allowed 35 points in its loss to Baltimore, but its defense was playing well for three quarters. The Bengals held the Ravens to 158 total yards entering the fourth quarter, and their game last week could have turned out much differently if Chase Brown’s third-quarter fumble while leading by 14 points did not set Baltimore up with a short field.

bet365 is one of our only best sports betting apps offering better than +100 odds to back the Bengals.

Best odds: +105 via bet365 | Implied probability: 48.78%

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”