Upset Special: Top 3 Underdog Picks of Week 16

As the NFL playoff picture begins to solidify, we offer up our top underdog picks for the Week 16 slate.

The last few weeks in the NFL have seen some lopsided betting lines, but underdogs continue to impress. The biggest surprises of Week 15 came in the form of the Detroit Lions toppling the Arizona Cardinals, and the New Orleans Saints shutting out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in prime time.

What's in store for Week 16 with six teams favored by more than a touchdown?

Here’s a look at my top three underdog picks of Week 16 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Underdog Picks for Week 16

San Francisco 49ers vs. Tennessee Titans (+144)Indianapolis Colts (+100) vs. Arizona CardinalsBaltimore Ravens (+120) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

SEE ALSO: Week 16 NFL Parlay Picks

Week 16 Underdog Picks and Predictions

Titans (+144)

I know, I’m going with the Thursday night game. It’s kind of a cop-out. With that said, I truly believe the Titans are a top-five NFL team, and the 49ers are incredibly overvalued coming off three wins in four games against lesser competition than Tennessee.

Not only did San Francisco need overtime to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals and fall to the Seattle Seahawks, it lacks a quality win since taking down the Los Angeles Rams in mid-November. San Francisco still ranks 21st in defensive DVOA against the pass and aside from running the ball well, the 49ers have been mediocre on offense, ranking 13th in points per game.

I recognize the 49ers have a clear way to win this game by winning the battle in the trenches against a team that loves to run the ball, but Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has come through matchups against great rushing defenses time and time again. An average of 6.9 yards per attempt isn’t too bad on the Titans' side of things, and it’s certainly good enough to exploit a weak 49ers secondary.

SEE ALSO: 49ers vs. Titans Picks

Colts (+100)

Have we learned nothing? The Colts just took out the hottest team in football and a Super Bowl hopeful at that by demolishing the New England Patriots last Saturday. The Cardinals lost back-to-back games, and have now lost four of their last seven games — two of which came against terrible opponents in the Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions. I have my doubts about Arizona.

Even at home, the Cardinals are in trouble. They rank 27th in yards per carry allowed and even though the metrics would point to them being a bit better than that, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is head and shoulders above the rest of the league. If he can run on an accomplished Patriots rushing defense, he can run on the Cardinals.

The defensive side of the ball just really scares me for Arizona, which has had some lapses in that area. Indianapolis is also third in DVOA against the run so moving the ball will be difficult.

SEE ALSO: Colts vs. Cardinals Picks

Ravens (+120)

I’m just not sure why the Bengals have regained the trust of the oddsmakers. It seems like a rash decision to make them favorites against a strong Ravens team that has struggled against the league’s elite but in general has done a great job moving the ball on the ground.

Sure, the Bengals beat the Ravens 41-17 in October. You know what else they did? Lost four of the next seven games, including against the New York Jets, Los Angeles Chargers and Cleveland Browns. This is a very average football team and one which has fallen off on the defensive end, plummeting to the middle of the pack in weighted DVOA.

Baltimore performed admirably against a solid Green Bay Packers defense last week without QB Lamar Jackson. With him expected back this week, I expect a big win.

SEE ALSO: Comeback Player of the Year Picks

See all our picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Picks made on 12/22/2021 at 7:40 p.m. ET.