As the Los Angeles Rams meet the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI, it is never too early to begin seeking value in the 2023 Super Bowl futures market. This article examines the opening lines for the 2023 Super Bowl.
The only plays you should consider investing in for the 2023 Super Bowl futures are those you believe will become shorter throughout the offseason. It is a long time to tie up your money, so backing a favorite at a number that will be available in August is not what we are looking to do.
There will be plenty of quarterback movement in the off-season. Aaron Rodgers could be looking to leave the Green Bay Packers and Kyler Murray is ghosting the Arizona Cardinals on Instagram. The 2022 NFL Draft, coaching hires, and free agency will also shift the odds over the next few months.
We examine some potential wagers in the 2023 Super Bowl Futures market.
Super Bowl 2023 Early Picks: Opening Odds
AFC Teams + Odds
NFC Teams + Odds
Super Bowl 57 Early Picks: Buy
This is the one team on the futures board in which I am willing to tie up my money for a long period of time. There are many reasons to hold Titans tickets, and I believe their number has the potential to become significantly shorter in the future.
While watching the Bills-Chiefs playoff game with friends, we discussed which AFC team you would choose if you were Rodgers. My choice was the Titans. Similar to Tom Brady's move to Tampa Bay, the offensive weapons are already in place.
As well as the weapons, the division is so weak that it is by far the easiest path to the playoffs. If Ryan Tannehill can lead the Titans to the No. 1 seed in the conference despite significant injuries throughout the roster, imagine what Rodgers could accomplish.
The rumor mill has heated up as Rodgers may consider the Titans as a possible landing spot. Given that Tannehill has struggled in the playoffs, could head coach Mike Vrabel negotiate a trade with his former offensive coordinator, Matt LaFleur?
A potential Rodgers move to the Titans is not factored into the Titans' early odds, unlike other teams on the futures market (Broncos). Tennessee's odds will drastically change if it's able to land the back-to-back MVP. In the event that he does not end up with the Titans, you still hold a +2400 ticket on a team that claimed the AFC's top seed in 2021.
Why we're buying the Titans
The combination of their long odds and the possibility of an upgrade at quarterback has me purchasing the Titans at +2400. The Titans' price point is attractive, even if Rodgers is not acquired. That is what makes me more inclined to buy their odds this early in the process and possibly be able to catch a big move at the same time.
Be sure to shop at FanDuel and get their most competitive price of +2400. The price plays an instrumental role in this wager, and I would not be interested in the Titans if I had to bet the +1800 at Barstool Sportsbook.
Best Price: +2400 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Super Bowl 57 Early Picks: Fade
The Chiefs missed their chance to win a second Super Bowl while QB Patrick Mahomes had a small cap hit. His cap hit was $7 million last season and it will rise to $35 million in 2022.
A salary cap constraint means that the Chiefs will have a difficult time improving their roster from a personnel standpoint. Due to their inability to make any meaningful offseason moves, there is no reason to purchase any of their early futures numbers.
Best Price: +950 via Barstool Sportsbook
If the Niners trade QB Jimmy Garoppolo, they will be able to free up $25.5 million in cap space. San Francisco will be able to build an even stronger team around second year quarterback Trey Lance as a result of this move.
Considering the uncertainty surrounding Lance, I cannot justify backing the Niners at +1500 so early in the process. Lance is likely to have growing pains at the start of next season, and I am confident the Niners will present a better number than +1500 in the first month or two of the season.
Best Price: +1500 FanDuel
The Broncos are a hard sell for me at their early odds of +2200. Essentially, this number is based on the fact that the media has been promoting a Rodgers - Broncos trade for some time.
What will happen if the Broncos do not trade for Rodgers? You are left with a +2200 ticket on a team that cannot win the Super Bowl with QBs Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, or any other potential free agent. As for the value on the price point, that depends entirely on whether the Broncos are able to acquire Rodgers. I cannot endorse that idea.
I like the Titans so much because they can win the Super Bowl without acquiring Rodgers, and I can get a longer price at +2400.
Best Price: +2200 via FanDuel
Super Bowl 57 Early Picks: Watch
What is the one team in which the acquisition of an elite quarterback would completely change your perspective on that team? It has to be the Steelers, as they possess offensive weapons and T.J. Watt on the defensive side.
Sportsbooks have different opinions about what should be done with Steelers futures. The Steelers are listed at +3500 to win the 2023 Super Bowl at Barstool. They're +7000 at FanDuel.
Keep an eye on the rumor mill regarding a new quarterback for the Steelers. I believe the +7000 at FanDuel is a great value if the team is interested in acquiring a top QB.
Best Price: +7000 via FanDuel
Where to Bet on the Super Bowl
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for odds boosts: