Steelers vs. Chiefs Week 16 Picks: Kansas City Playing Shorthanded

The 7-6-1 Pittsburgh Steelers and 10-4 Kansas City Chiefs are primed for a key AFC battle in Week 16. This game will help decide how two divisional races play out. We break it down with our Steelers-Chiefs NFL picks.

The surge in positive COVID-19 tests is affecting games across the NFL with playoff races in the balance. Week 16's key battle between the Steelers and Chiefs appears to be at-risk of missing key playmakers. This is either an ideal chance to fade the favorite or grab an incredible value.

The Chiefs' improved defense has helped their ability to cover spreads, as they've ripped off five straight covers to get to a 7-7 against the spread record. The Steelers are just 6-8 ATS but have been performing better lately as well, with a 3-3 stretch coming into Week 16.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 16 matchup between the Steelers and Chiefs (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Steelers vs. Chiefs Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 26, 4:25 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MOWeather: 66 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 16 mph winds

Steelers vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis

The Chiefs opened as 10.5-point favorites, and the market has swiftly changed to a 7.5-point line. The market is doubting the Chiefs as offensive stars become less likely to be available. Losing receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, among about a dozen in total, is justifiably causing concern. Still, 90% of bets and 94% of the cash are backing the hosts.

Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 46.5 to 44 or 45. This is the correct decision considering both of these defenses are solid and playmakers are now limited. We'll delve into this more below.

Steelers vs. Chiefs Picks

Chiefs -7.5 (-110) ???Under 44 (-110) ???

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Steelers vs. Chiefs Predictions

Chiefs -7.5 (-110)

The Chiefs could be without Hill, Kelce, defensive back Charvarius Ward, and linebacker Nick Bolton this week due to a positive COVID test, making this line a tough one to gamble on.

On one hand, we're getting some baked-in value as skeptics have driven the line down 2 points, but also the Chiefs likely aren't 7.5 points better than the Steelers without both of their top pass-catchers. Grabbing this line early is a bet for or against the likelihood of a negative test for any individual.

This is a low-confidence pick for me. With the Chiefs rolling lately and the Steelers struggling against the Minnesota Vikings, Cincinnati Bengals, and Los Angeles Chargers offenses over the last month. I'll take the Chiefs in a solid win.

Under 44 (-110)

The total is more likely to hit the Under than ever with stars out. Even if Hill, Kelce, and a few other starters play, this will be more of a defensive battle. Pittsburgh has its issues on defense but can get to Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes with linebacker T.J. Watt while staying conservative in zone shells in the secondary. 

Schematically, that means longer drives, more opportunities for turnovers, and fewer big plays. Kansas City will have major red zone problems without its stars, and the Steelers have been tripping over themselves offensively all year.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Steelers-Chiefs picks made 12/23/2021 at 9:50 a.m. ET.