Rams vs. Vikings Week 16 Picks: Go Against the Crowd, Take the Under

Plenty is at stake this Sunday when the Los Angeles Rams and the Minnesota Vikings face off. We cover every betting angle in this one with our Rams-Vikings picks.

The Los Angeles Rams have been a streaky team over the last two months. They enter this week on a three-game winning streak that followed a three-game losing streak. They will know whether they have a chance to go top of the NFC West before kickoff, as the Arizona Cardinals play the Indianapolis Colts on Christmas. The Rams are 5-2 straight up on the road but are just 2-4 against the spread as road favorites.

For the Minnesota Vikings, they are currently clinging on to the final playoff spot in the NFC. Minnesota has won and covered back-to-back games entering this week and is 4-2 SU in their six home games. The Vikings are 8-6 ATS and have covered their only two games as home underdogs.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 16 matchup between the Rams and Vikings (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a one-to-five-star scale).

Rams vs. Vikings Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 26, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MNWeather: Indoors

Rams vs. Vikings Odds Analysis

Most sportsbooks have the Rams as a 3-point road favorite, while DraftKings is one of the only sportsbooks with Los Angeles laying -2.5 points. The Rams have been favored in all but two games this year.

The total is most commonly found at 49.5 points, though BetAmerica is as low as 48. The 49.5 projected total is the highest in the last six Vikings games, and the Over has cashed in four of Minnesota’s last five games.

Rams vs. Vikings Picks

Rams -2.5 (-125) ???Over 49.5 (-110) ???

SEE ALSO: NFL Week 16 Early Parlay Picks

Rams vs. Vikings Predictions

Rams -2.5 (-125)

We would spend a lot more time in thought on this pick if the line was at the key number of three but could not wait to pounce on the Rams at -2.5.

Los Angeles was impressive in a gritty 20-10 win over Seattle last week despite having 16 players on the reserve/COVID-19 list. And during their three-game winning streak, they have shown signs of cohesion after amassing loads of talent on both sides of the ball.

Matthew Stafford has thrown 8 TDs and only 1 INT in the last three games and is third in the NFL in total QBR with 65.7 for the season. However, their offense is much more than Stafford, as their balance with a strong running game has made them difficult to defend. Sony Michel added another 115 total yards in their win over Seattle, and his 323 scrimmage yards over the last three weeks rank fourth in the league and second among running backs.

In a game that projects to be close, we trust Los Angeles’ defense more than Minnesota’s and trust Matthew Stafford’s ability over Kirk Cousins’ to come up big in the clutch. Stafford’s 76.5 QBR in the fourth quarter is the third-highest in the league, and his ability to make big plays will be the difference this week.

Over 49.5 (-110)

The Under will be a popular play this week, as the Rams are coming off a game with 30 combined points scored, and Minnesota’s Monday night matchup against Chicago had 26 points scored. However, both Los Angeles and Minnesota played division rivals last week, which tend to be lower-scoring since the teams are more familiar with each other. Throw in the fact that this game is played in a dome which cancels weather concerns, and that means we should be in for a fun high-scoring affair.

Cooper Kupp has been virtually uncoverable this year, and his 389 scrimmage yards over the last three weeks rank second in the NFL. In addition, Minnesota’s duo of Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook have combined for 2,633 yards this season, the second-most combined scrimmage yards by any pair of teammates.

There are elite skill position players all over the field and we like the contrarian nature of this play on the Over, given both teams’ defensive struggles last week.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Rams-Vikings picks made 12/22/2021 at 6:54 p.m. ET