Raiders vs. Colts Week 17 Picks: Las Vegas Looks to Tighten Wild-Card Race

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 29, 2021 9:38 AM EST • 2 min 36 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Running back Josh Jacobs #28 of the Las Vegas Raiders carries the ball against the Denver Broncos during their game at Allegiant Stadium on Dec. 26, 2021. Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP

The Week 17 matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Indianapolis Colts has huge playoff implications in the AFC. We break it down with our top Raiders-Colts NFL picks.

The Raiders won back-to-back games by six total points to help them stay relevant in the playoff picture. Las Vegas is 6-9 against the spread but covered in just two of its last eight games.

Indianapolis is one of the hottest teams in football, winning six of its last seven games. The Colts would be eliminated from AFC South contention with one more loss or a Tennessee Titans win, but they control their own destiny for the AFC’s top wild-card spot. Indianapolis has covered the spread in three straight games and four of its last five contests.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL's Week 17 matchup between the Raiders and Colts (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Raiders vs. Colts Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 2, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, INWeather: Indoors

Raiders vs. Colts Odds Analysis

Indianapolis opened as an 8.5-point home favorite but dropped to -6.5 after the news that quarterback Carson Wentz tested positive for COVID-19. Still, 81% of the bets and 73% of the handle is on the Colts. The Colts are 4-2 ATS as favorites, while the Raiders are 3-2 ATS as road underdogs.

The Over/Under has dropped from an initial total of 48.5 to as low as 44.5 in some spots. The Over is 3-2 in Las Vegas’ five games as road underdogs but cashed in just two of Indianapolis’ six games as the favorite. The public and sharps are in line again with 57% of the handle and 79% of the bets on the Over.

Raiders vs. Colts Picks

Raiders +6.5 (-110) ?Under 44.5 (-110) ??

Raiders vs. Colts Predictions

Raiders +6.5 (-110)

When attempting to handicap this game early in the week, the most important question is whether Wentz will be available for the Colts.

Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the NFL and NFLPA have just recently adopted the new CDC guidelines that reduce the quarantine time from 10 days down to five for all COVID-19-positive players who are asymptomatic, including those who are unvaccinated. That is a massive break for the unvaccinated Wentz, as it gives him a chance to suit up.

Regardless, it is worth a flier on the Raiders at +6.5 just in case he does not clear protocols, as the Colts would be left with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. Las Vegas allowed just 27 points over its last two games, and the defense will keep this game from getting out of hand.

Additionally, the Raiders have faced two top-13 rushing attacks over the previous two weeks (in the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos) and have held up well in the trenches. Thus, even if Wentz is cleared in time to play and this line goes back toward Indianapolis -8.5, we like the Raiders at that number as well.

A wager on them at +6.5 is a gift if Ehlinger is ultimately under center.

Under 44.5 (-110)

Once again, we love this play if Ehlinger is under center instead of Wentz, as the Colts’ offensive game plan would be very vanilla, and they would not expect the rookie to do much downfield throwing. At that point, the Colts would likely be satisfied to try and limit possessions and grind out a win with their power running game behind Jonathan Taylor.

Las Vegas is 7-0 when scoring 17 or more points, but unfortunately, they failed to reach that total eight times this season. They have not topped 17 points in any of their last four games, with tight end Darren Waller sidelined since Week 12. The Raiders' passing game has suffered without his play-making ability over the middle.

We would play this Under down to 44 but would likely back the Over if oddsmakers overcompensated by dropping the line into the 30s if Wentz is ultimately ruled out.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Raiders-Colts picks made on 12/29/2021 at 1:20 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.