NFL Predictions, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

The NFL Week 5 action gets started early on the weekend with a 9:30 a.m. ET game in London, kicking off a smaller 13-game slate in the first week of byes.

• Underdogs of six or more points are 9-8 straight up this season
• Nine of the 14 games on the Week 5 slate have point spreads of a field goal or lower
• Minnesota is 4-0 SU / ATS and is 4-0 to the Over while covering all first-quarter and first-half spreads 

Our NFL predictions and best bets for Week 5 call for a running back to find the end zone twice, while we back an underdog in what could end up as one of the most contrarian plays of the week as part of our NFL Week 5 predictions.

Best NFL bets for Week 5

NFL odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Jordan Love Under 0.5 interceptions (-105 via BetMGM) vs. Rams  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Jordan Mason to score 2+ touchdowns (+240 via DraftKings) vs. Cardinals  ⭐⭐⭐
• Jets-Vikings Over 40 (-112 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Browns +3.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Commanders  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 5 NFL odds & schedule

(Odds via BetMGM)

• New York Jets (+2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-2.5), Sunday at 9:30 p.m. ET
• Carolina Panthers (+4) vs. Chicago Bears (-4), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Miami Dolphins (+1) vs. New England Patriots (-1), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Cleveland Browns (+3.5) vs. Washington Commanders (-3.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Indianapolis Colts (+3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Buffalo Bills (-1) vs. Houston Texans (+1), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
• Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7.5), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
• Green Bay Packers (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams (+3), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
• New York Giants (+6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
• Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
• New Orleans Saints (+5.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5), Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET

NFL player props for Week 5

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jordan Love Under 0.5 interceptions (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Love is coming off a game where he tied a career high with three interceptions against the Vikings, but game script dictated a heavy passing attack, as the Packers were buried in a 28-0 hole in the second quarter.

Los Angeles has allowed 25-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in two of its last three games, and given that the Rams have allowed eight passing touchdowns to just one interception and nine yards per attempt through four games, Love should be able to play turnover-free football.

I wanted to back Over 1.5 passing touchdowns considering Love has multiple passing touchdowns in eight straight games going back to last year.

However, the Over is juiced as high as -200 at BetMGM and Caesars, so the better value is with these -105 odds on Love’s interception prop at BetMGM, where a $10 winning wager would return $9.52 in profits.

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Jordan Mason to score 2+ touchdowns (+240) ⭐⭐⭐

Mason is one of two running backs in the league to have 20-plus touches in each game this season, and he's already scored three times in his first four starts for the top NFC team by the Super Bowl odds.

We know the volume will be there once again when facing the Cardinals defense, which has allowed the third-most rushing attempts (112) and fourth-most rushing touchdowns (five) against opposing rushers.

Arizona is coming off a week where it allowed the Commanders to run for 216 yards and a 5.8 rushing yards per carry average with four rushing touchdowns. While that had me looking long and hard at backing Over 85.5 rushing yards, the cheapest price to back the Over was -123 at Caesars.

Thus, I am swinging for a home run with Mason to score multiple touchdowns, which should be attainable given that he has at least one score in three of four games this year. 

Compared to Caesars’ +215 odds for the same wager, we can net $2.50 more in profits ($24 compared to $21.50) by making this bet at DraftKings.

Best odds: +240 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 29.41%

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NFL game predictions for Week 5

Jets-Vikings Over 40 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Under cashed in all three London games last season and in four straight overall, but I am likely to be on the contrarian side with this Over.

The Jets are coming off a week in which they scored 10 or fewer points for the fifth time since the beginning of last November - tied for the most such games in that span. Yet they face a sneaky good matchup this week against Minnesota.

Aaron Rodgers has much better numbers against zone coverage than man coverage this year. Against man, Rodgers has a 38 QBR while completing 58% of his passes, averaging 6.0 yards per attempt, and producing a 30% first-down percentage.

When facing zone, those numbers improve to a 68 QBR, a 72% completion percentage, 7.5 yards per attempt, and a 38% first-down percentage. That is important for this matchup, as the Vikings defense plays zone on an NFL-high 78% of dropbacks.

Over backers will find the best number at DraftKings, as all of our other best sports betting apps have their totals set a half-point higher at 40.5.

Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%

Browns +3.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

It is usually profitable to fade the public and be on the contrarian side of wagers, and never has that been more true than through the first four weeks of the NFL season.

Teams that are receiving the majority of the betting support (51% of the tickets are more) are just 22-39-2 ATS this season. Washington is currently attracting the second-highest percentage of tickets (71%), and that has me backing Cleveland as our most confident contrarian five-star play.

Jayden Daniels has not faced a single defense that ranks higher than 17th in dropback success rate allowed this season, and he is about to get his toughest test from a Browns defense that ranked first in that metric last season.

Meanwhile, Washington ranks last in pass defense EPA, and that could be the matchup that Deshaun Watson needs to get going. 

DraftKings is the only other one of our best sportsbooks offering a line of +3.5 (all others are at +3), but since it charges a slightly higher -118 price to back the underdogs, the best number and price for underdog backers is at BetMGM. 

I broke down three other underdogs I like this week in my NFL Week 5 upset picks.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

NFL betting odds pages

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• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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