NFL Week 14 Player Prop Picks: Best Odds & Props This Week

Mike Spector makes his favorite NFL Week 14 player prop picks, including a Saquon Barkley touchdown bet and Alvin Kamara yardage prediction.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 7, 2024 12:01 PM EST • 6 minute read

We're looking at today's updated Super Bowl odds for the Chiefs vs. Eagles showdown. — Pictured: Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley celebrates a touchdown. Photo by Katie Stratman via Imagn Images.

While the NFL MVP race is widely viewed as a two-player race between Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley, there are plenty of other players who should be in line for big weeks in Week 14. Our NFL Week 14 player props back one of the top NFL MVP odds candidate’s player props.

Tua Tagovailoa is 4-0 SU in his career against the Jets
Saquon Barkley is on pace to set the single-season NFL rushing record
Last week, Josh Allen became the first quarterback in NFL history with a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown in the same game

We also make our two best plays on quarterbacks who were only inserted as their team’s starter recently as a part of our NFL Week 14 predictions.

NFL player prop picks for Week 14

NFL odds subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Saquon Barkley to score a first-half touchdown (+115 via DraftKings) vs. Panthers ⭐⭐⭐
Alvin Kamara Over 122.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118 via Caesars) at Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Justin Jefferson Over 6.5 receptions (+116 via FanDuel) vs. Falcons ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Aidan O’Connell Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+136 via FanDuel) at Buccaneers ⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Friday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Best NFL player props this week

Saquon Barkley to score a first-half touchdown ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 46.51%

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Last week we cashed a +180 play when Saquon Barkley scored a second-half touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens, his third consecutive game with at least one score. Barkley leads the league with 246 carries and is on pace to set the single-season rushing record. He faces a Panthers defense that has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns and the most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season.

This is a somewhat contrarian play as Barkley’s last five touchdowns have all come after halftime. But I am banking on Philadelphia racing out to a big lead as 12.5-point home favorites, which means the Eagles may not use Barkley as much in the second half.

These +115 odds are a much better value than Barkley’s -294 anytime touchdown odds at Caesars. The best price for this wager is at DraftKings (+115), whereas FanDuel offers -105 odds for Barkley to score in the first half.

Alvin Kamara Over 122.5 rushing + receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -118 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.13%

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Alvin Kamara turned in his eighth game this season with over 100 scrimmage yards in Week 13. I expect even more usage out of him going forward, as the New Orleans Saints continue to deal with injuries to several skill-position players.

Taysom Hill, who poached five or more carries from Kamara in five of eight games this season and had 13 receptions in his last two games, is out for the year with a torn ACL. And the Saints have a dearth of perimeter wide receiver options without Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.

This is a four-star play, as Derek Carr ranks fourth in passer rating and seventh in yards per attempt since Week 10, which bodes well for Kamara’s involvement in the passing game. DraftKings is on the high end of this market at 125.5 yards, and it still charges -115 in juice to back the Over. Caesars is the only one of the best sports betting sites offering an O/U as low as 122.5.

Justin Jefferson Over 6.5 receptions ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +116 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 46.30%

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I will always be enticed by plus-money odds for the Over on receptions for a receiver the caliber of Justin Jefferson, especially a receiver that sees as many targets as he does weekly.

Jefferson has seen eight or more targets in nine of the last 10 games and has the second-highest team target share in the league. He has seven or more catches in four of the last seven weeks. He also faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in highest passer rating, CPOE, and passing yards per game allowed since Week 8.

With BetMGM and bet365 offering +110 odds for Jefferson to record seven-plus catches, the best return is at FanDuel. Through FanDuel’s +116 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $11.60 in profits.

Aidan O’Connell Over 1.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +136 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 42.37%

Aidan O’Connell has been given plenty of opportunities to let it fly of late, as he has attempted 35 or more passes in two of his last three starts. Former starting quarterback Gardner Minshew only came within 60 yards of O’Connell’s 340-yard output last week once this season.

O’Connell’s plus-money odds to throw multiple touchdown passes this week offer a great value play considering Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed the most passing yards per game and passing touchdowns since Week 5.

There is a decent gap between BetMGM’s +120 odds and FanDuel’s +136 odds for this wager, so I am headed to the latter for the biggest possible return at the best NFL prop betting sites.

NFL betting odds pages

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”