Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 18 Picks: Will Belichick be Scoreboard Watching?
The New England Patriots have clinched a playoff berth heading into their Week 18 matchup with the Miami Dolphins but can still win the AFC East with some help. Will the Dolphins play the role of spoiler or will the Patriots continue to build momentum heading into the playoffs? Check out our Patriots-Dolphins picks.
New England snapped a two-game losing streak with a dominant 40-point win over Jacksonville. It was the second time the Patriots scored 50 points in a game this season and their second win by at least 40 points. The Patriots have won nine of their last 10 January games.
Miami had a seven-game winning streak snapped in last week's loss to Tennessee which eliminated the team playoff contention. It was the Dolphins' third loss by at least 28 points this season, but they enter this week on a five-game home winning streak.
Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 18 matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Patriots vs. Dolphins Game Info
Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 9, 4:25 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FLWeather: 80 degrees, chance of thunderstorms
Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis
New England opened as 5.5-point favorites and got as high as -7. The most common number available now is -6.5. The Patriots are tied for the third-best against the spread record at 10-6 and have covered seven of their 11 games as favorites.
The Over/Under has not wavered as much as the point spread, as the total has held firm at 40 points. BetMGM is one of the only sportsbooks lower at 39.5. The Under has cashed in 10 of Miami's 16 games and has cashed in each of New England's last four road games.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Picks
Dolphins +6.5 (-110) ???Under 40 (-110) ??
SEE ALSO: NFL Week 18 Early Parlay Picks
Patriots vs. Dolphins Predictions
Dolphins +6.5 (-110)
New England has struggled in many of its late-season trips to South Florida, as the Pats are just 2-7 straight up in their last nine trips there in December and January. Patriots players have discussed how difficult it is to get adjusted to the warm weather this time of year when they have been mostly playing and practicing in frigid temperatures. Thus, the heat and humidity in Miami will likely wear down the Patriots throughout the game.
In addition, circumstances dictate Patriots coach Bill Belichick might take his foot off the gas at some point if he's doing any scoreboard watching in this game. New England is locked into the No. 5, 6, or 7 seed if Buffalo beats the Jets this week. Given that the Bills are the biggest favorite on the Week 18 slate, it is highly likely that they get out to a big lead, which means New England's hopes of winning the division would be eviscerated. Thus, the Patriots may decide to do a mid-game 180 and pull some starters early depending on how the Bills-Jets game is going.
Under 40 (-110)
The Patriots and Dolphins slogged their way to a 17-16 result in Week 1, which was the third straight time the Under has cashed in this head-to-head rivalry.
In last week's loss to Tennessee, the Titans did a fantastic job of taking away Miami's best weapon, Jaylen Waddle. The rookie wideout entered the game with at least eight receptions in five of his previous six outings but was held to just three catches, his lowest total since Oct. 10. In addition, his 47 receiving yards were his fourth-lowest total of the season. Miami's offense looked lost without his explosive play-making.
Miami's scoring potential may be limited if Belichick follows a similar game plan, given his history of taking an opponent's No. 1 option away.
In addition, New England's Damien Harris, Adrian Phillips, and Isaiah Wynn all left last week's win against Jacksonville with injuries. Thus, Belichick may look at that and figure going into the playoffs healthy is the most important thing, especially if there is nothing much other than wild-card seeding to play for.
SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Patriots-Dolphins picks made 1/5/2022 at 10:21 a.m. ET
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