Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

Even in a breakout effort, Harvey still only drew seven carries and saw the field for only 27% of snaps in Week 8.

The Houston defense allows just 88.4 rushing yards per game (5th in NFL) and limited Dallas to 48 team rushing yards last week.

The Broncos have surrendered just 30 receptions to tight ends across eight games this season (3.75 per game), tied for the third-lowest rate in the NFL.

The Texans have the No. 1 defense in the NFL when it comes to yards and points allowed per game. The Texans are averaging just 21.9 points per game, but the defense will do enough against an inconsistent Broncos' offense.

Stroud just ... doesn't have it this year. After throwing for four touchdowns against the lowly Ravens, he's thrown an interception in back-to-back games and hasn't had a great game against a top-10 defense all season long. Sure, he's beaten up on Tennessee, Baltimore, and San Francisco, but he threw for 204 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars, 207 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and 188 against the Los Angeles Rams. I don't see a path to going over this number against the Denver Broncos.

Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins has scored just one touchdown in the last five games. It would not be surprising to see him lose more work down the stretch to rookie R.J. Harvey, who is coming off the first multi-touchdown game of his career.

Dobbins has averaged 15 touches per game, and faces a Texans defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per rush to running backs. Houston is also bottom-six in explosive runs to the position.

I’d feel a lot more confident in this pick if Denver’s defense weren't without cornerback Patrick Surtain, who is expected to miss multiple games with a left pectoral strain. But it is still a Broncos defense that leads the league in QBR, completion percentage, sacks, and third-down conversion rate.

Denver is rolling and Houston struggled against the Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 7, which should resemble what the Broncos will bring to NRG Stadium. 

Still trying to figure out how the Broncos are underdogs here. The Texans are 3-4 and have put up stinkers against Seattle, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Los Angeles - it's not necessarily a good track record. Give me Bo Nix and that Denver defense here, who are coming off a 20-point win against the high-flying Cowboys.

It's hard to ignore the Texans' impressive win last week, but the Broncos have been doing it all season long with even greater success. Godspeed to Houston's offensive line in this one.

Mac Jones is starting again this week, and he'll be up against the Giants' 24th-ranked pass defense in the league. With Cam Skattebo out, I expect the Giants to struggle to score against a defense allowing just 20.5 points per game.

Kittle has caught a touchdown in two of his three games. The Giants have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends, and seven of the 12 passing touchdowns by the 49ers have been caught by tight ends.

With Cam Skattebo out, Tracy is the Giants' top back, but he has yet to top 46 yards this season, and he's averaging just 3.5 yards per carry.

McCaffrey has totaled at least 139 total yards in five games this season. Though the Giants have the third-worst rush defense in football, this combined total is his safest play, since McCaffrey has only topped 70 rushing yards once this year.

Tracy Jr. saw double-digit carries in nine games last year, and went over this projected total six times.

The New York Giants have been good at home and the San Francisco 49ers don't get any healthier as time goes on. It's shaping up to be a challenging road game.  

How will the Giants look in their first full game without rookie running back Cam Skattebo, the heart and soul of this team? I suspect it'll be close throughout before San Francisco pulls away late.

Freiermuth has caught at least three passes in four of seven games, and the Colts have allowed the fourth-most receptions to tight ends this season.

The Steelers are allowing the most passing yards per game, and Jones has topped 251.5 yards in five of eight games this season.

The Steelers are tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to tight ends (six). Warren is set up well then, especially after he's scored in three of his last four games and tallied 60-plus receiving yards five times this season.

The Indianapolis Colts have shown no signs of regression, and I can't back the Steelers after they imploded at home in the second half against the Green Bay Packers. The Steelers' offense was too predictable, while the Colts' offense is anything but. 

While I don't want to buy too high on the Colts, this doesn't feel like enough respect for the NFL's winningest team through eight weeks - especially with Pittsburgh's defense playing like one of the worst units in football.

Carolina was woeful against Buffalo in Week 8, while the Green Bay Packers enjoyed a superb second half in Pittsburgh. The jury is still out on whether Bryce Young will suit up. Even if he does, the Panthers are much worse on enemy terrain.  

The Packers are clearly the better team in this matchup, but they've been caught playing with their food this year, and this spot has real letdown potential after last week's emotional win over Aaron Rodgers and Co.

The Lions have allowed 11 touchdowns to the wide receiver position, which is the second-most in the NFL.

Addison has scored in 50% of his games this year after scoring in seven of 15 regular season games last year (46.6%).

The Lions boast one of the top run defenses in the NFL, allowing just 87.7 rushing yards per game. In their last contest, Detroit permitted just 41 rushing yards to Tampa Bay.

Jones has logged just 18 rushing attempts in three games while averaging 3.4 YPC.

Gibbs shredded the Buccaneers for 136 rushing yards in his most recent game and should be well-rested off the Detroit bye week.

The Lions are heavy favorites over a Vikings team that gave up 117 rushing yards to Kimani Vidal in their last game. Minnesota allows 130.6 rushing yards per game (24th in NFL).

Since returning from their bye, the Minnesota Vikings' secondary has been getting torched, giving up six passing touchdowns over the last two weeks. Now, they take on the third-best scoring offense and the fourth-most efficient red-zone offense in the NFL. Enter burner Jameson Williams, who's in a great spot to hit pay dirt. Minnesota has given up a 37-yard, 79-yard, and a 27-yard score over the last two weeks, which is an absolute dream for No. 1. The volume will be there, and Williams will be one of the many mouths that get fed come Week 9.

J.J. McCarthy's return couldn't come under more challenging conditions as he and his Vikings face a rampant Detroit Lions team at Ford Field with the fifth-best offensive DVOA and the best defensive DVOA. 

If you're reticent to lay the big number here, just turn on the tape of Carson Wentz over the last few weeks ... and remember that J.J. McCarthy was arguably even worse early in the year. Detroit coming off a bye should deliver a statement win at home to keep pace in the NFC North.

McConkey has scored in three of his last four games entering Sunday's contest against a defense allowing 28.8 points per game.

Ward has thrown a touchdown in three consecutive games, but he's yet to throw multiple in a single contest, and he has three games without one. The Chargers have allowed just eight passing touchdowns this season.

Vidal has rushed for over 100 yards in two of his last three games, and the Titans are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game and yards per carry.

The Titans have lost six of eight games by at least 10 points, and the Los Angeles Chargers are starting to get some key players back. 

Even after yet another blowout, I can't seem to quit these Titans as big underdogs, especially in a sneaky motivation spot for interim coach Mike McCoy against the team that fired him almost a decade ago.

With Rhamondre Stevenson out, Henderson should get the vast majority of carries against the 22nd-ranked rush defense. He should also get all goal-line carries for a team averaging 26.6 points per game.

The Patriots are allowing the fifth-most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends. Pitts has caught at least seven passes in back-to-back weeks.

Robinson has had two rough weeks, but this feels like a massive overreaction for a player who has managed at least 124 yards in four of his seven games this season.

This might be the best price we've seen on Bijan Robinson to get into the end zone all season. Yes, it's coming against one of the better defenses in the NFL in New England, but Bijan has scored in three of his last four games, whether that's on the ground or through the air, and is the focal point of this Atlanta offense.

I doubted Drake Maye last week when the New England Patriots played the Cleveland Browns. I won't make that same mistake against an inconsistent Atlanta Falcons team that was poor in its last two defeats. 

It's tough to be a Patriots fan. Tom Brady exits, Drake Maye - an MVP candidate - enters. The Falcons are coming off a spanking against the lowly Miami Dolphins, while New England has a shot to win the AFC East. I'm riding the Pats here.

Drake Maye might legitimately be one of the five best quarterbacks in the world right now in only his second season for New England. With the Patriots' defense showing out, too, I'm shocked this line isn't bigger.

I like Loveland to go Over his receiving yardage prop, but I also like Cole Kmet to actually find the end zone, especially at the generous price of +380 (20.8%). The Bengals have given up a ton of receiving yards to tight ends, but they’ve also given up the most touchdowns to the position with 10, four more than the next-worst Dolphins, who have also played an extra game. 

The Bears have been making an effort to get tight end Colston Loveland the football lately, with him logging a career-high 84.6% route participation rate last week. That turned into five targets and 38 receiving yards, well above this line, and it should continue into this week’s matchup versus the shaky Bengals defense.

The Cincinnati Bengals have one of the NFL’s worst defenses, which should create plenty of opportunities for Caleb Williams to have a big game

Chicago had a four-game winning streak snapped against the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens, as Baltimore allowed a season-low 16 points. Chicago seems heavily reliant on takeaways, with its winning streak spurred by a league-high 16 takeaways entering last week, and it struggled when it did not force a single turnover.

The Chicago Bears struggled on the road against a Baltimore Ravens team that didn't feature Lamar Jackson. While the Cincinnati Bengals imploded at MetLife, I can't lay the points on the Bears in Cincy. 

There are only a handful of teams who could build and then blow such a big lead like the Bengals did last week. They looked so good in the first half, though, that I'm betting on a bounce-back effort this week.

Thomas Jr. may have five drops this season, but the Raiders have been poor at defending perimeter wide receivers. Thomas is also just two games removed from his best output of the season, when he hauled in eight of 10 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. 

Raiders quarterback Geno Smith’s 10 interceptions are tied for the most in the NFL despite playing one fewer game than many. This is about as poor of a matchup as it gets for a turnover-prone quarterback, as Jacksonville is one of three teams in the league with 10-plus interceptions. 

Jaguars head coach Liam Coen stressed the importance of offensive balance coming out of the bye week, as the Jaguars threw 90 passes compared to 38 runs in a two-game losing streak. That should benefit Tuten, who is looking for his fourth game with 21-plus rushing yards this season.

In the last game prior to the bye, Hunter set season-highs in targets (14) and receptions (eight), and that extra volume also paid off with his first NFL touchdown.

Las Vegas has been poor for most of the season, while Jacksonville has shown promise despite getting worked over in London by the Los Angeles Rams before the bye week. 

Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks following blowout losses, but the Raiders looked much more pitiful in the weeks before that. Jacksonville should take care of business to get back on track in the wide-open AFC.

Adams leads the Rams with six touchdowns, and despite Puka Nacua returning, Adams still should have plenty of opportunities against a defense that has allowed the ninth-most passing touchdowns in the league.

Tyler Shough targeted Johnson five times last week, resulting in three catches for 35 yards. While the Rams are good against tight ends, Shough showed last week that he'd prefer to use Johnson as a safety net, as he didn't throw a single pass to a running back.

Williams has only topped 70 yards twice this season, but with his team favored by two touchdowns and the Saints allowing 124.3 rushing yards per game, I love this matchup for him.

Tyler Shough will get his first start when the New Orleans Saints face the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. The Rams have too many weapons for the rookie signal caller. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 0-3 on the road, losing each by at least 10 points. 

Will it be Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough taking snaps for New Orleans? Neither are equipped to face this underrated Rams defense, while Matthew Stafford is quietly playing at an MVP level. This shouldn't be close.

Josh Allen has gone for 42+ rushing yards in four out of seven games this season and faces a Kansas City defense that has also been susceptible to the QB run.

Trevor Lawrence and Lamar Jackson both rushed for 48+ yards against Kansas City.

Patrick Mahomes is averaging 5.75 rushing attempts per game and a career-best 6.1 YPC.

He’s cleared 28.5 rushing yards in five of eight games this season and faces a Bills team that has allowed more rushing yards per game to QBs than any other NFL team this season.

Kansas City is 5-3 ATS on the season. In two games with Rashee Rice active, the Chiefs have outscored their opponents, 58-7.

The Chiefs boast the 2nd-ranked scoring defense in the league (16.4 PPG). Buffalo is 1-3 ATS at home.

The Chiefs have the ninth-ranked rushing attack in the league, and even though Isiah Pacheco is out, Kareem Hunt will be able to run all over the Bills' 31st-ranked rush defense.

Mahomes has scored in four of eight games, and the Bills have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns, tied for second-most in the league. The last time Mahomes faced the Bills, he scored twice.

Allen has thrown for fewer than 215 yards in five of seven games, and now he's tasked with taking on the league's third-best pass defense, which has already shut down players like Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson.

Isiah Pacheco is out, making Hunt the lead back against the second-worst rush defense in football.

Mahomes has racked up 56 rushing yards in the red zone on 10 carries, showing his scoring isn't just a product of some quarterback-sneak flukes or goal-line weirdness. That red-zone yadage total ranks tied for 11th leaguewide and ahead of prominent running backs, most notably Bijan Robinson (44) and Saquon Barkley (32).

Don't look now, but Kelce has his swagger back. Kelce has caught at least five balls in five of his last six games, scoring a touchdown in two of them. A week ago, he was one yard short of the 100-yard milestone with a touchdown to his name, and has become a red-zone demon once again. 

This could definitely be my best NFL player prop for Week 9. Allen won't be denied against these Chiefs once more and will do everything in his power to finally take down Patrick Mahomes. It's more than just a game to him. While I still like Kansas City to win, I'm expecting fireworks. Buffalo has the worst run-stopping unit in the league and is susceptible to getting gashed on any given night. In order for the Bills to keep up with Mahomes and Co., it'll rest on Allen's arm.

I'm sorry, but Josh Allen can only do so much. His defense comes in with the worst run-stopping unit in the NFL, and while the secondary has been better, its numbers are inflated due to a schedule featuring the Panthers, Saints, Jets, and Dolphins. Don't be surprised if Patrick Mahomes and Co. blow these Bills out of the water.

The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL against the spread (5-3), with Buffalo in the bottom 10 (3-4).

Since returning from suspension, Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice has seen a 29% target share, while no other Chiefs player is even at 17%. Rice has also been the first read on 34% of passing plays, and his 40.4% target share since Week 7 is second only behind only Ja’Marr Chase (51.2%).

Josh Allen has a solid track record against Patrick Mahomes in the regular season. And as the difference between these teams is negligible, I'm content taking the home betting underdog.