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Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against the Chicago Bears as we share our favorite Patrick Mahomes player prop picks.
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against the Chicago Bears at Arrowhead Stadium on Sept. 24, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jason Hanna/Getty Images via AFP.

Patrick Mahomes will make his debut in New York on Sunday Night Football, and we're providing our top player prop predictions for Mahomes, supported by the best NFL odds.

Reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, the quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, leads his 2-1 team against the struggling New York Jets offense led by second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. This game could be the final straw for Wilson as the Jets' quarterback if they aren't able to generate any offense in this primetime matchup.

After a rocky start to the season, Mahomes has returned to form, and the Chiefs now boast a winning record above .500. Despite the changing cast of characters at wide receiver around him on offense, Mahomes remains consistent.

Mahomes will aim to impress millions of his newest fans in primetime by lighting up the Meadowlands, as we're sure to see record viewership thanks to Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift.

Here are our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions, which accompanies our Travis Kelce player props and Chiefs vs. Jets predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for Week 4

Patrick Mahomes player props

Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 pass attempts (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game over his first three matchups. Also, he's eclipsed this mark in two out of those three. As a team, just over 59% of K.C.'s offensive game relies on its QB’s arm. Last season, the Chiefs' signal caller was Under this number in eight outings. However, he hit exactly 35 in three of them.

The Jets allowed an average of 36 passing attempts in their first three contests. Two of their opposing QBs exceeded this total. Teams throw the ball against New York on 51% of their offensive plays.   

DraftKings also offers this prop at the same price. Meanwhile, BetMGM ran this line up to -130 for the Over. Additionally, FanDuel has the line at 36.5 and lowered the juice to -108 for Mahomes to complete 37 passes.

Patrick Mahomes longest completion Under 37.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The deep ball is lacking for the Chiefs as Mahomes averaged just 10.9 yards per completion so far this season. His longest completion was a roughly 20-yard pass that wide receiver Skyy Moore turned into a 54-yard touchdown. Overall, he averages just 7.1 yards per attempt in 2023. In his career, that average improves by only a yard to 8.06 yards per attempt. 

Despite their deep threats, neither Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen nor Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott hit their receivers deep enough to eclipse this total. The only pass catcher to break out for more than 38 yards against the Jets was New England Patriots tight end Pharaoh Brown. Patriots signal caller Mac Jones dumped a medium-ranged pass to Brown behind the defense, resulting in a long TD.

Patrick Mahomes Over 295.5 pass+rush yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes soared past this number in his last two games, gaining 335 combined yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars, then 300 total yards versus the Chicago Bears. Last season, the Chiefs’ QB averaged 308.8 passing yards and 21.1 rushing yards per game. In his only career matchup against the Jets, Mahomes threw for 416 yards.

The Jets did well against opposing QBs so far this season, giving up only 222 passing YPG. Additionally, they've allowed 129.3 rushing YPG to opposing quarterbacks. 

You can find this line a yard lower at DraftKings, but you'll pay -115 for that yard. BetMGM's line is also at 295.5, but offered at -115 on either side. FanDuel dips even lower to 293.5 at -114 on both sides.

Patick Mahomes player prop picks made Saturday, 9/30/23 at 1 p.m. ET.

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