Panthers vs. Buccaneers Week 18 Picks: Can Tampa Enter Playoffs on Winning Note?

The Carolina Panthers will wrap their tumultuous 2021 season by traveling down to Tampa Bay for a meeting with their division rivals. Despite having nothing to play for at this point, both teams will be playing their starters here. We break it all down with our Panthers-Buccaneers betting picks.

The Carolina Panthers opened up the season with three straight wins and it’s been downhill ever since. The Panthers are winless in their last six games and haven’t covered in any of them despite being short favorites of a field goal or less three different times. The Over has hit in five of their last seven, but it’s a testament to how bad the defense has been considering how mighty of a struggle it’s been to score.

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they are a week removed from a near-loss to the Jets and the loss of one of their top receivers in Antonio Brown. With Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette also out — and Mike Evans perennially banged up — things have gotten that much tougher. Tampa is still 5-2 against the spread in its last seven despite dealing with so many injuries and will play its starters, for better or for worse.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 18 matchup between the Panthers and the Buccaneers (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Panthers vs. Buccaneers Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 9, 4:25 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FLWeather: 82 degrees, chance of a shower

Panthers vs. Buccaneers Odds Analysis

The Buccaneers opened up here as 16.5-point favorites on the lookahead. Since then, some significant money and news of turmoil in Tampa Bay moved this number to 8.5 and even 8 at some books from where it was at the beginning of the week. With such a drastic move, there could be some value on Carolina here.

The total went from 42.5 to 41.5 at pretty much every book despite 62% of the cash coming in on the Over. It appears some sharp money is coming in on the Under due to Carolina's lack of scoring over the last three weeks.

Panthers vs. Buccaneers Picks

Buccaneers -8 (-110) ????Under 41.5 (-110) ????

SEE ALSO: Top Expert Betting Picks for NFL Week 18

Panthers vs. Buccaneers Predictions

Buccaneers -8 (-110)

This is unequivocally the value play in this game. Tampa Bay may not be worthy of being double-digit favorites here, but it’s certainly better than this. The starters will be playing for the Buccaneers, which naturally means there is a risk for injury, but it also means Bruce Arians and his team are treating this game seriously and excited for the opportunity to fine-tune things before the playoffs.

As for the offense, I’m not overly concerned. Cyril Grayson caught the game-winning touchdown last week for Tampa Bay and Tyler Johnson has plenty of big-game experience with Tom Brady and a solid foundation from which to work off. Carolina has been one of the most underwhelming defenses in the second half of the season and ranks 24th in weighted DVOA.

On the other hand, Sam Darnold has been incredibly underwhelming over the past two games since returning as a starter, posting a passer rating under 66 and throwing for 322 combined yards in his two starts with no touchdowns and an interception. Carolina will have no way out here against a Tampa Bay defense ranked eighth in DVOA against the pass and 12th in DVOA against the rush.

Under 41.5 (-110)

The Panthers don’t have Christian McCaffrey, and without him, this offense simply has nowhere to go. Carolina has combined for a measly 30 points in its last three games and mustered up just six in a 32-6 home loss to Tampa Bay a few weeks ago.

Tampa Bay is incredibly strong against the run, giving up just 91.4 yards per game. With Darnold asked to pass with the Panthers playing from behind here, trouble should be brewing in the secondary. While Tampa Bay had a scare against the Jets, we should actually give their offensive line, rookie running back Michael Carter and Zach Wilson a little credit for the job they’ve done.

It’s hard for me to envision two touchdowns here for the Carolina Panthers, and it’s also hard for me to envision the Tampa Bay Buccaneers refusing to step off the gas pedal once they inevitably go up 17 points. I think this could be a game where the Buccaneers pound the rock in the second half and prevent this one from going Over.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Panthers-Buccaneers picks made 1/7/2022 at 6:10 p.m. ET