Packers vs. Vikings Week 11 Picks: Don't Sleep on Minnesota

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 17, 2021 4:54 AM EST • 2 min 40 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Minnesota has played better than what its record indicates and will be a tough opponent for Green Bay in Week 11. Find out if we like the Minny to cover the spread as a slim road underdog in our Packers and Vikings picks.

The Green Bay Packers are the league’s most profitable team from an ATS perspective, covering the spread in nine of their 10 games. In addition, they are the second-most profitable team to the Under, as the Over has cashed in just two of their contests.

The Minnesota Vikings, on the other hand, are 5-4 ATS but have covered the spread in just one of their three home games. They snapped a two-game losing streak with a 27-20 road win against the Chargers last week.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 11 matchup between the Packers and Vikings (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Packers vs. Vikings Week 11 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MNWeather: Indoors

Packers vs. Vikings Odds Analysis

Most sportsbooks are in lockstep with this -2.5 point spread, and it will take a significant amount of betting action on Green Bay to get to the key number of Packers -3. Green Bay is 9-0 ATS since getting destroyed by the Saints in Week 1.

The 49-point Over/Under is tied for the lowest total in a game involving the Vikings since Week 1. The Under has cashed in Green Bay’s last seven contests and is 4-0 in Minnesota’s last four home games. We are going with the Under in our Packers and Vikings picks while the SBR consensus favors the Over.

Packers vs. Vikings Picks

Minnesota +2.5 (-110) ?????Under 49 (-110) ??

Packers vs. Vikings Predictions

Minnesota +2.5 (-110)

Minnesota covering the spread is one of our most confident plays of the season. The Vikings are an undervalued team with their record at 4-5, considering all of their losses are by seven points or fewer, and four of their five losses are by four or fewer.

Green Bay has several injury concerns entering this game, starting with Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones. In addition, the Packers may be without two of their best defenders, as Rashan Gary is questionable with a hyperextended elbow, while the team lost linebacker Whitney Mercilus for the season with a biceps injury.

Running back A.J. Dillon filled in admirably for the injured Jones last week, finishing with a season-high 128 total yards. Jones is a much more versatile back, however, evidenced by his 37 receptions and 298 receiving yards, each of which ranks second on the team. Without Jones, the Packers offense becomes a lot easier to defend.

Most bettors will look at the 3.5 games separating the Vikings and Packers in the standings and will eagerly lay less than a field goal with Green Bay. But Minnesota’s point differential is just 26 points worse than Green Bay’s, suggesting the gap is not too big between these teams.

The underdog has covered nine of the last 13 meetings between these teams. In addition, Minnesota is 6-6-1 straight up in its previous 13 games against Green Bay, which has us confident it will play well against the NFC North leaders again. That's why we are backing Minnesota in our Packers and Vikings picks for Week 11.

Under 49 (-110)

There's no denying how impressive Green Bay’s defense has been over the last three weeks. Despite facing a trio of the best quarterbacks in the game in consecutive weeks (Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson), the Packers have allowed a league-best 11.3 points per game. They are also second in yards per play allowed (4.4) and have allowed the third-lowest completion rate (56 percent) over that span.

The Packers are also coming off their first shutout win in head coach Matt LaFleur’s tenure in Green Bay. In addition, the Under has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between these teams in Minnesota. And it is the Under that once again looks like the right side of this total.