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Jets vs. Texans Week 12 Picks: Take the Under in Bottom of the League Battle

Jets vs. Texans Week 12 Picks: Take the Under in Bottom of the League Battle
Zach Wilson of the New York Jets looks to pass against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images via AFP.

Two struggling teams face off with implications for the 2022 NFL Draft on the line. We have all the angles covered with our Jets and Texans picks.

While the Week 12 matchup between the 2-8 New York Jets and 2-8 Houston Texans looks unexciting on paper, it is a game that carries significant implications. The loser of this game has the inside track on a much higher draft pick since only the Detroit Lions enter this week with a worse record than these teams.

The Jets have lost three consecutive games and five of their last six. New York has eight or more losses through their first ten games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1995-96. This season, they are 2-8 against the spread and are 0-4 straight up and ATS in four road games.

The Texans ended an eight-game losing streak and seven-game road losing streak with their 22-13 win over the Titans last week. Houston is 5-5 ATS and has covered the spread in three of their four home games.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 12 matchup between the Jets and the Texans (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Jets vs. Texans Week 12 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 28, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Weather: Indoors

Jets vs. Texans Odds Analysis

The Jets have been underdogs in every game since Week 4 of last season. Their +2.5-point spread is the lowest of the season. Since opening at 3 points the line has held firm at 2.5 at every sportsbook since its initial opening. However, the odds have moved from -110 to -105 for the Jets +2.5, indicating bettors may trust the Texans more.

The Jets broke a streak of six consecutive Overs with the Under cashing last week against the Miami Dolphins. The 44.5-point total is the lowest in any game Houston has been involved in since their Week 6 game against the Indianapolis Colts. The total is currently sitting anywhere from 44 to 45 at various sportsbooks.

Jets vs. Texans Picks

Jets +2.5 (-105) ★★
Under 44.5 (-110) ★★★

SEE ALSO: NFL Week 12 Early Odds and Picks

Jets vs. Texans Predictions

Jets +2.5 (-105)

New York will have rookie Zach Wilson back as their starting quarterback after he missed the last four games with a knee injury. However, he is more or less their quarterback by default, as Joe Flacco and Mike White were both placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

The Jets made a somewhat curious decision to start Flacco in their last game against the Dolphins. They cited that he would be better prepared to handle Miami’s complex blitzes than White. Though it resulted in a loss, it could be a blessing in disguise they went with Flacco, as they got to see what rookie wide receiver Elijah Moore can do. Moore exploded for eight catches and 141 yards and now has four touchdown catches in the last three games.

The biggest reason for siding with the Jets is that we like the contrarian factor of the play. Many bettors will overreact to Houston’s big win over Tennessee last week and assume laying less than a field goal with the home team is easy money. However, this is a prime spot for New York to get some momentum going and Wilson to earn his first career road win.

Under 44.5 (-110)

While it's exciting to see what Moore brings to the Jets offense, they suffered a significant loss in running back Michael Carter, who was averaging seven yards per carry in that game before getting hurt against Miami. Carter has been ruled out for two-to-four weeks with a low-grade ankle sprain. One should expect a low ceiling for New York’s offense if they have to put more on Zach Wilson’s shoulders.

Texans QB Tyrod Taylor brings a running ability to this offense that Davis Mills did not have, as Taylor had five scrambles for 28 yards and two rushing touchdowns last week. However, the Texans are still a team that has topped 22 points once all season. The Under is 10-4 in their previous 14 games as home favorites, and Taylor will go back to being more of a game manager than a playmaker in this matchup. The QB battle is why the Under is the best pick in this Jets and Texans game.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Picks made on 11/24/21 at 8 a.m. ET.