Jets vs. Dolphins Week 15 Picks: Miami Favored Big in AFC East Clash

Will the New York Jets be successful in their role of spoiler, or will the Miami Dolphins continue to gain steam and build toward a late-season playoff push? We break down the AFC East matchup with our top Jets-Dolphins picks.

The Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in football, as their current five-game winning streak is third only to the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Jets lost five of their last six games and are playing their first game after officially being eliminated from playoff contention. 

The 3-10 Jets have lost back-to-back games and are looking to avoid their third three-game losing skid of the season. In addition, New York is the least profitable team in the league when betting against the spread, having covered in just three of 10 games. Miami is 7-5-1 ATS.

The Dolphins have won five straight games following a seven-game losing skid, and they are 4-3 ATS in their seven home games and 2-1 ATS in their three games as home favorites.

Here are my NFL picks and predictions for the Week 15 matchup between the Jets and Dolphins (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Jets vs. Dolphins Week 15 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 19, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FLWeather: 83 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, 6 mph winds

Jets vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis

All sportsbooks were in lockstep, with the Dolphins being -8.5 point home favorites, but that line ticked up to -9.5 in some spots on Wednesday morning. However, Miami has had some COVID-19 news surface, so bettors may want to monitor the point spread and see if any books adjust the number as it gets closer to kickoff.

Depending on the sportsbook, the Over/Under can be found at 42.5 or 43 points. This line is comparable to the 45-point closing total from the first matchup in Week 11, which stayed Under in a game Miami won 24-17. The current line would be the lowest total in a Jets-Dolphins game since their Week 9 matchup in 2019 that kicked off with a total of 42.5 points.

Jets vs. Dolphins Picks

Jets +9.5 (-110) ???Under 42.5 (-110) ???

SEE ALSO: NFL Week 15 Betting Odds, Lines and Picks

Jets vs. Dolphins Predictions

Jets +9.5 (-110)

While Miami has the scheduling advantage of coming off a bye week for this matchup, a mini COVID-19 outbreak should have Dolphins backers concerned.

Miami has three running backs on the reserve/COVID-19 list, including their two top rushers in Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed. Meanwhile, New York is expected to have rookie running back Michael Carter rejoin the lineup. He leads the team with 430 rushing yards, despite playing just 10 games due to an ankle injury. His last game played before the injury was against the Dolphins, where he ran for seven yards per carry and provided a game-breaking element to New York’s offense.

In addition, New York’s defense expects to get back defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (shoulder), who will be vital in plugging running lanes and getting after Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa. With Miami’s backfield potentially depleted come Sunday, we like New York’s chances of staying within the number in this rivalry game.

Under 42.5 (-110)

Miami’s defense has been lights out over the last five weeks, as the numbers in many categories are much improved from its performance over the first eight weeks. The Dolphins have allowed 11.0 points per game over the last five games, which ranks third in the NFL in that span. In addition, their 281 yards per game allowed over the previous five weeks ranks fourth in the league, as does their 20.6 total QBR allowed. By comparison, the Dolphins allowed 29.1 PPG through their first eight games. They also allowed 406.9 yards per game and a total QBR of 69.7 during a stretch where they went 1-7.

While Miami has been able to ride a red-hot defense to an extended winning streak, the offense cannot seem to protect Tagovailoa. His offensive line has afforded him an average of 2.1 seconds to throw, as it ranks last in the league in pass block win rate (45%). 

The Under cashed in the last four meetings between these teams and is also 4-0 in Miami’s last four games following a bye week. Thus, bettors should feel confident in another defensive struggle breaking out this week.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Jets-Dolphins picks made 12/14/2021 at 3:40 p.m. ET.