Giants vs. Dolphins Week 13 Picks: New York to Cover In Low-Scoring Game

The Miami Dolphins are 4.5-point favorites this Sunday as they host the New York Giants. Find out who we think is the side to back with our Giants and Dolphins picks.

The Giants are coming off one of their best defensive performances of the season at home against their division rival Philadelphia Eagles. However, the road has not been kind to the Giants, as they have lost five of their last six games away from home dating back to last season. New York has been underdogs in all five road games this year, covering the spread in three of them.

The Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in football, as their current four-game winning streak is second only to the New England Patriots. They are 3-3 against the spread in their six home games (6-5-1 ATS overall) and are 1-1 ATS in their two games as home favorites.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 13 matchup between the Giants and the Dolphins (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Editor's note: Giants QB Daniel Jones (neck) was ruled out Friday morning after failing to be cleared for contact.

Giants vs. Dolphins Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 5, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FLWeather: 80 degrees, partly cloudy

Giants vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis

This point spread has moved significantly throughout the week. Miami opened as low as 3-point home favorites but are now laying anywhere between 3.5 and 5.5 points at various sportsbooks.

The 40.5 point total for this matchup is the lowest of any game on the Week 13 slate. The Over/Under can be found as high as 41.5 at some sportsbooks.

Giants vs. Dolphins Picks

Giants +4.5 (-110) ????Under 41 (-115) ???

SEE ALSO: NFL Parlay Picks for Week 13

Giants vs. Dolphins Predictions

Giants +4.5 (-110)

If the line had held firm at Miami -3, it would have been much more tempting to lay the points at that low number. However, now that the line ballooned to Giants +4.5, that is too many points to pass up in what could be a tremendous buy-low spot on the underdogs.

We got our first look at the Freddie Kitchens-run offense last week, as the Giants fired their previous offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett, the week prior. In the 26 games with Garrett as their play-caller, the Giants scored 30 points just once. While New York only scored 13 points last week, the play-calling looked more creative, and there seemed to be a more evident emphasis on getting the ball to their playmakers. Wide receiver Kenny Golladay came up with two big catches to move the chains late. Daniel Jones completed passes to eight different receivers.

The Giants are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs, and we like them to stay within this number against a non-explosive Dolphins offense with our top pick.

Under 41 (-115)

This O/U is the lowest of any game this week with good reason. The Dolphins defense has sparked their four-game winning streak, as they have allowed 11.5 points per game over the last four games. Miami rattled Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton last week, as he finished 5-for-21 passing with a career-low 5.8 quarterback rating.

While Miami appears to have a stud in the making in rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, they do not have any other healthy playmakers on the outside to compliment him. Tua Tagovailoa has just one game with more than 8.3 yards per passing attempt this season, so it is not like Miami’s offense is slinging the ball all over the field. Meanwhile, the Giants rank 26th in scoring at 18.4 PPG, which means Miami’s dominant defense should feast once again.

The Under has cashed in nine of New York’s last ten games against teams with a losing record and is also 8-3 in Miami’s previous 11 games against teams under .500. Thus, do not be scared by this low total, as each team will likely struggle to get to 20 points.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Giants-Dolphins picks made on 12/01/21 at 7:30 a.m. ET.