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Giants vs. Buccaneers Week 11 Picks: Can Tampa Bay Right the Ship?

Giants vs. Buccaneers Week 11 Picks: Can Tampa Bay Right the Ship?
Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks on against the Washington Football Team at FedExField. Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images via AFP.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 11-point favorites when they play host to the New York Giants on Monday night. We’ll break down the betting matchup with our Giants and Buccaneers picks.

The NFL is a league where things change quickly. The defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers have dropped two straight games and have struggled to cover their spreads. At 6-3 overall and 3-6 against the spread, the Buccaneers need to wake up and start catching fire.

Their Monday Night Football opponent, the New York Giants, have also dealt with a ton of injuries. They’ve clawed their way to a 3-6 record and have covered five of nine spreads thus far. Can the feisty Giants cover with a large spread against them?

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 11 matchup between the Giants and the Buccaneers (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Giants vs. Buccaneers Game Info

Date/Time: November 22, 2021, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Weather: 65 degrees, partly cloudy

Giants vs. Buccaneers Odds Analysis

Although the difference in quality between these two teams is vast, it's clear bettors are fading Tampa Bay. This line has moved from 12.5 to as low as 10.5 in favor of the Buccaneers on some sites. It's a great time to buy low with such movement.

The total has dropped from 50.5 to as low as 49.5. I think that's a fair number, and I even think there's value down to 47.

Giants vs. Buccaneers Betting Picks

Buccaneers -10.5 (-110) ★★★
Under 49.5 (-110) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: Top Expert Prop Picks for Week 11

Giants vs. Buccaneers Betting Predictions

Buccaneers -10.5 (-110)

It's natural to hesitate any time you lay this many points. The Buccaneers possess one of the best offenses in the NFL that averages 406.9 yards per game, but their recent play hasn't reflected that. Their defense has clear shortcomings due to injuries and the offense has sputtered a bit.

The Giants have played their best over the last three months and can hang around if Tampa Bay allows them to. I think this is a close cover, with the Bucs sealing the lead late after a frustrating performance through the first three quarters. It's easy for championship teams to lose focus the following year, and I think this is a case of that focus fading.

Under 49.5 (-110)

Most teams in the NFL cannot afford to lose two straight games and still be favored by double digits. I hate the line on this game because Tampa Bay is beaten up, and the Giants can throw the ball downfield on their decimated secondary. They may have the best passing offense, but their pass defense is ranked just 22nd.

Still, I don't see this being a high-scoring game. Tampa Bay has been sluggish as Tom Brady has missed his former Patriots teammates Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown recently. The Bucs win, but the safer play is the Under.

Picks made on 11/19/2021 at 12:08 a.m. ET

SEE ALSO: Top Expert Betting Picks for Week 11