Falcons vs. Jaguars Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 4: Jaguars Favored in London
The Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars are set to face off in London, and we're providing our top predictions for the Falcons-Jaguars matchup based on the latest NFL odds from our best sports betting sites.
In Week 3, the Falcons experienced their first loss of the season, scoring only six points and gaining just 183 yards on offense. Despite their typically effective rushing attack, averaging 128.3 yards per game, they managed only 44 yards.
In contrast, the Jaguars suffered their second consecutive defeat, a 37-17 loss to the Houston Texans. The Jaguars pass defense has been struggling, allowing an average of 269.3 yards per game.
The lingering question remains: Can the Falcons' offense seize this opportunity with Desmond Ridder at the helm?
Here is our best Falcons-Jaguars prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Falcons vs. Jaguars prediction
Jaguars -3 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Falcons’ passing attack simply isn’t good enough to take advantage of the Jaguars’ clear weakness. Atlanta couldn't do much against a very good run defense in Week 3, and their offense sputtered as a result. Desmond Ridder dropped back 38 times, managing only 201 yards on his 21 completions.
Additionally, the Falcons’ offensive line is struggling with pass protection. It gave up seven sacks during Week 3 and has allowed 12 already over three games. The Jaguars' defense has registered five sacks in 2023. We could see the unit coming close to its season total on Sunday morning with Josh Allen on the prowl.
Jacksonville's defense is allowing just 84.0 yards on the ground per game. If the Jaguars can prevent Bijan Robinson or Tyler Allgeier from getting going, the offense may only need to score 14 points to cover during this game. The Falcons are allowing just 18 points per contest, so scoring won't be easy for the Jaguars.
However, in 2022 Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars were 2-6 and averaging just 21.5 points per game. They then turned it around and ended up winning the AFC South. Even though the Falcons’ defense is decent, the team's numbers are skewed after enjoying two relatively easy matchups. Look for the Jaguars’ offense to do just enough to cover in this one in our NFL predictions for Week 4.
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Falcons vs. Jaguars best odds
FanDuel (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 |
| -115 | -110 | -110 | -120 | -110 |
The spread is the same at all five of our best sportsbooks. FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365 are all offering the same number for a price of -110.
While we would bet at any one of those sportsbooks right now, it looks like DraftKings and FanDuel may be preparing to move this line to 3.5. The Jaguars should win this one running away, so if you can get -3.5 at +100 or better, it's definitely worth a play.
Falcons vs. Jaguars odds
Falcons vs. Jaguars odds analysis
The Jaguars opened as 4.5-point favorites, and the line has now moved to -3 despite 74% of wagers backing Jacksonville. Most of that line movement was a correction from the early lines that anticipated the Jaguars looking much better than they have over the first three weeks. If this spread moves off the key number, it should shift to 3.5.
As for the total, the number opened at 43.5, and it hasn't moved despite 64% of wagers backing the Over. It seems as though oddsmakers are content with that total, even if the public expects a high-scoring game between two mediocre offenses.
Falcons vs. Jaguars game info
- When: Sunday, October, 1 at 9:30 a.m. ET
- Where: Wembley Stadium, London, UK
- How to watch: ESPN+
- Weather: Indoors
Falcons-Jaguars prediction made 9/28/2023 at 5:32 p.m. ET
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