Euro 2024 Long-Shot Picks & Predictions: Sleepers to Win it All in Germany

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 2:42 PM EDT • 4 min 9 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

With Euro 2024 just days away, we think it is the perfect time to discuss three of the best sleeper picks for the all-anticipated event based on the odds from our best soccer betting sites.

Maybe the most unexpected winner of this immensely popular and heralded event came when Greece won Euro 2004 after entering the tournament as wildly massive long shots. The comparative minnows beat Portugal twice, once in the final, and France in the quarterfinals, en route to their only major trophy.

Based on various factors, including their Euro 2024 odds and how we expect the Euro 2024 bracket to play out, we've picked three long shots with the best chance of securing a historic victory at the upcoming tournament in Germany, which will take place from June 14 to July 14.

While England, France, and Germany sit atop the odds leaderboard, Italy, the Netherlands, and Denmark, further down the odds totem pole, offer excellent value and could make a run if a few things fall into place.

Euro 2024 sleeper picks

Netherlands (+1800 via Caesars)
Italy (+1800 via Caesars)
Denmark (+5500 via FanDuel)

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Euro 2024 long shots to back

Netherlands

The Netherlands' lone European Championship victory came in 1988 when they beat the Soviet Union 2-0 in the final. While they haven't advanced to the semifinals since 2004, there's reason to hope at Euro 2024.

Holland have one of the deepest, most experienced, and best defensive cores in the tournament. The Dutch rearguard features a who's who of Europe's elite, led by Nathan Ake, Matthijs de Ligt, Stefan de Vrij, Micky van de Ven, and Virgil van Dijk.

Assuming they secure second place in Group D, including Austria, France, and Poland, the Netherlands will probably play Slovakia, Ukraine, or Romania in the Round of 16. That should lead to a probable quarterfinal contest against Portugal, Turkey, or the Czech Republic. The Netherlands will fancy their chances against each of those teams, even Portugal.

Anything can happen if they advance to the semifinals. Holland's primary concern is their lack of firepower, but they shouldn't need to score many goals considering their wealth of talent at the back.

At +1800, Caesars' odds imply a probability of 5.26%, and a $10 bet would pay a profit of $180 if the Netherlands secure their second European Championship trophy.

Best odds: +1800 via Caesars

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Italy

The defending Euro champions enter the tournament with the lowest expectations of any Italian national team in recent memory. They finished second behind England in qualification and have only nine members of the 2020 winning side joining them at Euro 2024.

However, you can never underestimate the Italians at any major tournament, especially as their head coach, Luciano Spalletti, was the mastermind behind Napoli's recent Serie A title. If Italy gets hot entering the knockout phase, there's a decent chance they'll go on another run, like they did at Euro 2020.

Italy will probably finish second in Group B, widely considered the tournament's Group of Death. The group features Spain, Croatia, and Albania. While Croatia will offer a stern test, the Italians should secure second spot. That would probably lead to a Round of 16 encounter against Scotland, Hungary, or Switzerland. A potential quarterfinal matchup against England may then be on the cards, and we all know how that went for the Three Lions at Euro 2020. The +1800 odds offered at Caesars are the same as Holland's, providing a total payout of $190 if the $10 bet hits.

Best odds: +1800 via Caesars

Denmark

Denmark could be sneaky good, and they have a favorable draw if things pan out on the pitch as they do on paper.

The Danes are in Group C with Slovenia, England, and Serbia and should expect to qualify for the knockout stage in second place. They have excellent goalkeeping and a solid backline featuring Joachim Andersen, Andreas Christensen, Simon Kjær, and Joakim Mæhle. They also have skill and doggedness in midfield (Pierre Hojbjerg, Christian Eriksen) and an up-and-coming striker (Rasmus Højlund) who will be desperate to make an impression on one of the world's biggest stages.

If the Danes secure second in Group C, they will probably face a daunting challenge against the Germans in the Round of 16. However, if they manage to upset the hosts and third favorites, the path could lead to a quarterfinal matchup against Portugal or the Netherlands. They would match up much better against Holland.

At +5500, backing Denmark is worth putting down a few dollars. The odds imply a probability of 1.79%, and a $10 bet would pay a profit of $550 if Denmark wins their second European Championship.

Best odds: +5500 via FanDuel

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Euro 2024 betting pages

Past UEFA European Championship winners

Year	Winner	Odds (prior to group stage)	Runner-up
2020	Italy	+700	England
2016	Portugal	+1800	France
2012	Spain	+250	Italy
2008	Spain	NA	Germany
2004	Greece	NA	Portugal
2000	France	NA	Italy
1996	Germany	NA	Czech Republic
1992	Denmark	NA	Germany
1988	Netherlands	NA	Soviet Union
1984	France	NA	Spain

How to bet on the 2024 Euro outright odds

All of our best sportsbooks feature odds for the tournament. You'll be able to bet on the outright champion, as well as on group winners and specific matches throughout the event.

Odds will change as the tournament nears and once games start being played. The lower (or shorter) the odds, the more likely that team is perceived to be to win the tournament.

Here are our best soccer betting sites:

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Written By:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.