2024 U.S. Open Round 3 Odds & Picks: Aberg the Favorite Heading into Weekend

The 2024 U.S. Open Round 3 odds from our best golf betting sites are considerably different than the pre-tournament oddsboard as Matt MacKay makes his best picks heading into Saturday.

Ludvig Aberg has held steady as a favorite by the U.S. Open odds through the first two rounds of the year's third major. He's the live betting favorite atop the leaderboard at 5-under heading into Saturday.

Scottie Scheffler, the World No. 1 and heavy consensus pre-tournament favorite, snuck just inside the cut line at plus-5, but he's still receiving plenty of respect from our best sports betting sites through two rounds at Pinehurst No. 2. The perks of having five PGA Tour wins and $24 million in tournament winnings by mid-June...

Bryson DeChambeau (4-under) and Rory McIlroy (3-under) are closest behind Aberg on the U.S. Open oddsboard entering Round 3.

Live U.S. Open Round 3 odds

Odds from our best sports betting sites (confidence rating based on a 1-to-5-star scale); last updated on Saturday at 8:10 a.m. ET.

U.S. Open Round 3 picks

Bryson DeChambeau to shoot 69 or lower in Round 3 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DeChambeau has been in contention at both previous majors this season, so it’s not surprising to see the LIV golfer sitting comfortably at T-2 on the leaderboard heading into Round 3.

On Friday, DeChambeau ranked seventh in strokes gained: putting, 14th SG: approach, and sixth for driving distance. He’s a power hitter with finesse around the greens, which has been crucial to staying under par in both rounds played. 

At BetMGM, we’re getting even odds for DeChambeau to finish Round 3 at 1-under or lower, which feels like stealing. He’s done it in Round 1 (minus-3) and Round 2 (minus-1) while missing fairways and only finding nine of 17 greens in regulation on Friday.

DeChambeau can do it the hard way, like we saw on Friday, or the easier way like he showed us in Round 1. Either way, +100 odds are too good to pass up. A one-unit wager is recommended for this player prop on Saturday. 

Best odds: +100 via BetMGM

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Ludvig Åberg bogey free in Round 3 ⭐⭐⭐

We’re taking a bit of a long shot on the current outright leader, Ludvig Åberg, to finish Round 3 without a bogey. This prop is currently 22-1 on DraftKings and it’s this long due to the difficulty of Pinehurst No. 2. However, the 24-year-old Swede tends to play clean, mistake-free golf, which bodes well for his bogey-free outlook.

In Round 1, Åberg shot 4-under, recording two bogeys. Both of these were missed putts inside of 10 feet. On the week, Åberg ranks fifth SG: putting, 16th SG: approach, and first for fairways hit and greens in regulation. Not to mention, the Swede is also first SG: off-the-tee. 

His only weakness thus far has been SG: short game, which could prove to be the difference between a win and a loss at Pinehurst this week. Yet in Round 3, with plenty of momentum and confidence as the outright leader at 5-under-par, a 0.25 unit wager at 22-1 odds is recommended for Åberg’s bogey-free Round 3 prop.

Best odds: +2200 via DraftKings

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How to bet on golf

Betting on the U.S. Open golf tournament requires understanding the unique challenges presented by the course and conditions, especially when it's held at Pinehurst No. 2. Here’s a guide to help you get started:

First, familiarize yourself with the different types of bets available. Common options include outright winner bets, where you pick the golfer you think will win the tournament. For example, you might see odds like +300 for a favorite like Scottie Scheffler, meaning a $10 bet would return a profit of $30 if he wins.

Head-to-head matchups are also popular. In these bets, you pick which of two golfers will have the better score in the tournament. For example, you might bet on Xander Schauffele at -120 to beat Rory McIlroy at +100, meaning you risk $12 to win $10 if Schauffele scores lower. Prop bets focus on specific events within the tournament, such as betting on whether there will be a hole-in-one or the performance of a particular golfer on a certain hole.

Pinehurst No. 2 is known for its challenging greens and difficult roughs, which can significantly impact player performance. When betting on the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, consider golfers who excel in accuracy and putting. Additionally, look at recent form and past performances at similar courses.

Research the players, paying attention to their recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form. For example, if a golfer has a strong track record at courses with difficult greens, they might be a good bet for Pinehurst No. 2. Factor in weather conditions as well, as they can influence play significantly.

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