Dolphins vs. Jets Week 11 Picks: All Defense for AFC East Battle

The Jets are a 3.5-point home underdog for their Week 11 clash against Miami. Find out why we are backing New York in our Dolphins and Jets picks.

The 55-year history between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets has been filled with incredible memories. Whether it was Joe Namath’s six-interception game, Dan Marino’s fake-spike game, Chad Pennington’s Revenge, or the Jets' fourth-quarter comeback down 30-7, this rivalry never disappoints.

Both teams enter without glamorous records, with Miami (3-7 straight up) just a half-game ahead of the Jets (2-7 SU) in the AFC East standings. Regardless of records, this battle is usually exciting.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 11 matchup between the Dolphins and Jets (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Dolphins vs. Jets Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJWeather: 53 degrees, overcast

Dolphins vs. Jets Odds Analysis

Miami opened as a 3-point favorite at most books and quickly fell to -2.5 before settling on the current 3.5-point line. The majority of bets and money are on the Dolphins, who have won eight of the last 10 games between these two teams.

Miami is 4-5-1 against the spread, including 2-1-1 on the road. The Jets are a woeful 2-7 ATS, but a respectable 2-2 ATS at home. New York’s two wins have come in big home upsets over the Titans and Bengals. Nearly 85 percent of bettors, according to the SBR consensus, are backing the Under 45 on the total.

Dolphins vs. Jets Picks

New York +3.5 (-110) ???Under 45 (-110) ???

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Dolphins vs. Jets Predictions

New York +3.5 (-110)

New York is starting veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, with both Zach Wilson and Mike White recovering from injuries. Two of Flacco's biggest offensive weapons will be rookies Elijah Moore and Michael Carter.

After a fantastic preseason, Moore has finally started to see the field on a consistent basis. He has run 27 or more routes in three of the past four weeks, with a season-high 41 routes in Week 9 against Indianapolis. Moore’s 4.40 40-Yard Dash speed and 10.67 (97th percentile) Agility Score make him an explosive threat against any secondary.

Carter, on the other hand, has quickly established himself as an elite pass-catcher, ranking Top 10 in receptions (31) and targets (45) among all running backs. He has been incredibly productive the past four weeks, corralling 22 of his 31 targets.

The Jets should find success against a Miami defense that is just middle of the pack in total DVOA. New York’s offense sputtered early in the season but averaged 27 points per game prior to last week’s loss to Buffalo.

SEE ALSO: Colts vs. Bills Week 11 Picks

Miami, meanwhile, found an offensive flow in the second half of its Thursday Night win over Baltimore. Tua Tagovalioa entered the game after an injury to Jacoby Brissett, and led the Dolphins to 16 fourth-quarter points at home. Tagovailoa is still dealing with a broken finger on his throwing hand, that is still a concern, especially with the Dolphins playing without wideouts DeVante Parker and Will Fuller. Miami ranks fourth in team passing attempts per game, and the Jets' run defense is much stronger than their pass defense. If the Dolphins need to continue to pass at that rate, Tagovailoa’s injury will be a huge variable on efficiency.

The biggest discrepancy between these two teams is centered around the pass rush. New York has the most productive home pass rush, ranking first among all teams with 3.8 sacks per game, while Miami averaged just 1.6 sacks on the road.

This game projects to be another close battle with the home team receiving a full 3.5 points. Getting that hook with a strong New York defense at home is too enticing to pass up for our Dolphins and Jets picks.

Under 45 (-110)

Both offenses struggle, and both defenses have been playing much better in recent games. I don’t expect the 36-year-old Flacco to post big numbers against a defense that just shut down Lamar Jackson.

Miami, still without a full offensive roster, will rely heavily on rookie Jaylen Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki for passing game production. Running back Myles Gaskin should carry the rushing work, but is only averaging 3.4 yards per attempt this season.

These have typically been low-scoring games, with a combined average of just 37.8 points over the past 10 years. That total drops to 35.3 points for games played at MetLife Stadium.

The Jets rank ninth-slowest among all teams in pace, per FootballOutsiders, which is the likely game plan with Flacco under center.

I expect both teams to bring pressure on defense and limit the scoring for both teams. The majority of bets and money is on the Over, making this contrarian play even more attractive.

SEE ALSO: Week 11 Underdog Picks

Picks made on 11/18/2021 at 1:46 p.m. ET.