NFL Contract Holdouts 2024: Who Stands to Lose the Most in Aiyuk, Lamb & Chase Waiting Game?
This is the period of the NFL calendar when we annually see the most competitive - and high stakes - games of chicken. That's certainly no different this year.
Top NFL wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco 49ers), CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys), and Ja'Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals) remain engaged in contract holdouts - or hold-ins. All three are seemingly headed to the last-minute deadline.
Which of their respective NFL teams - each considered a 2024 Super Bowl odds contender - stands to lose the most should a deal not be reached in time?
Latest NFL contract situations
To be clear, we expect all of Aiyuk, Lamb, and Chase to sign some form of new deal in time for Week 1, as is so often the case every year across the NFL. It's extremely rare for players of their caliber - and importance - to miss meaningful time.
We'll dive into the latest regarding each of their contract situations before looking at which team has the most to lose.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
Contract status: Reported to camp, not practicing
The 49ers and Aiyuk, a 2020 NFL Draft first-round pick, are still working on a long-term extension. However, the Pittsburgh Steelers are at least one team to engage the Niners in serious trade talks.
ESPN's Adam Schefter said that he thinks a deal ultimately gets done to keep Aiyuk in the Bay Area.
Our Gary Pearson looked into whether San Francisco can remain a Super Bowl favorite if it trades its No. 1 receiver.
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys
Contract status: Holding out of camp
Lamb led the NFL with 135 receptions en route to being named a first-team All-Pro and finishing third in Offensive Player of the Year voting a year ago. His yardage total has risen each of his four years in the NFL since being selected with the 17th pick of the 2020 draft.
But Lamb's contract situation has seemed to be one of the more hostile this offseason. He sparred with Cowboys owner/general manager Jerry Jones on social media after Jones publicly said "I don't have any urgency to get it done".
Still, Schefter and our C Jackson Cowart expect a deal to get done, as Jones has done so many times before in the days ahead of Week 1.
Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals
Contract status: Reported to camp, not practicing
Selected with the fifth overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, Chase was named Offensive Rookie of the Year in his first season. Those facts alone may give him a better contractual case than Aiyuk or Lamb.
He was also able to help keep the Bengals within wild-card contention despite the absence of Joe Burrow for a significant chunk of the 2023 NFL season.
While Aiyuk and Lamb head into their fifth-year option as former first-round picks, Chase has played just three seasons. That leaves the Bengals with two years of control. Without a new deal, he'll carry a cap hit of $9.8 million for 2024 and $21.8 million for 2025, according to Spotrac.
2024 Super Bowl odds: 49ers, Cowboys, Bengals
The 49ers, Cowboys, and Bengals are among the most popular Super Bowl predictions this year. Here are the latest Super Bowl odds for all three teams across our best Super Bowl betting sites.
Expect the odds to shorten slightly once a deal is reached between team and receiver.
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | +600 | +600 | +600 | +625 | +550 |
| Bengals | +1300 | +1500 | +1400 | +1300 | +1200 |
| Cowboys | +1900 | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 | +1600 |
Offensive Player of the Year odds: Aiyuk, Lamb, Chase
It should be no surprise to anyone to see Lamb and Chase assuming their regular spots near the top of the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds. Aiyuk trails a little further behind, but that may largely be due to the challenges he faces within the 49ers roster for the award, including reigning OPOY Christian McCaffrey.
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 | +900 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +1200 | +1000 | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | +12000 | +7500 | +8000 | +12500 | +10000 |
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Who has the most to lose?
The 49ers' are the heavy Super Bowl favorites among these three teams, and Aiyuk ranks a distant third among the three wideouts by the Offensive Player of the Year odds. As such, our best NFL betting sites are giving San Francisco the benefit of the doubt and expecting the reigning NFC champs to be able to survive Aiyuk's potential absence - or departure.
The battle for "who could lose the most?" then comes down to the Bengals and Cowboys. Cincinnati is slightly preferred in the Super Bowl market (with market-best odds of +1500 via FanDuel). Lamb has the early edge over Chase in the OPOY market across most of our best sports betting sites.
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Division winner odds
The Bengals are commonly the favorites to win the AFC North ahead of the Baltimore Ravens. The Cowboys - the reigning NFC East champs - trail the Philadelphia Eagles by the NFC East odds at DraftKings.
| AFC North | NFC East |
|---|---|
| Bengals (+140) | Eagles (-120) |
| Ravens (+145) | Cowboys (+160) |
| Browns (+600) | Commanders (+900) |
| Steelers (+800) | Giants (+2000) |
Both divisions are entering the season as an apparent two-horse race. The Bengals have an implied probability of 41.67% as favorites to win the AFC North, according to DraftKings. The Cowboys' +160 odds to win the NFC East represent an implied probability of 38.46%.
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Cowboys need Lamb
Though the NFC is widely considered the more open of the two conferences, the Cowboys trail the rival Eagles by the odds to win their division. Lamb's status as the consensus third option by the OPOY odds also represents his importance to his team - albeit only slightly above Chase.
Based largely off his social media activity, Lamb seems to be the most committed of these three receivers to his holdout - which is a true contract holdout as he's yet to report to camp. The Bengals also have an extra year with Chase before they would seemingly need to truly sweat his training camp and preseason status.
The Cowboys - already behind the 8-ball in their own division according to the NFL odds - are most in need of their No. 1 receiver and offensive weapon. This is even before considering the calamity that could ensue for America's Team should head coach Mike McCarthy fail yet again to deliver a Lombardi Trophy.
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