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Fletcher Cox of the Philadelphia Eagles sacks Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as we share our favorite Commanders vs. Eagles prediction.
Fletcher Cox of the Philadelphia Eagles sacks Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on Sept. 25, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images via AFP.

The Philadelphia Eagles are facing off against the Washington Commanders, and we're offering our top predictions for the Commanders vs. Eagles matchup, utilizing the best NFL odds currently available.

After a promising 2-0 start to the season, the Commanders suffered a devastating defeat in Week 3. Washington quarterback Sam Howell threw four interceptions, leading to his team's 37-3 loss against the Buffalo Bills.

On the flip side, the Philadelphia Eagles demonstrated their dominance. Despite narrowly winning their initial two games with a combined margin of 11 points, they convincingly secured a 25-11 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road. They outgained the Bucs by 298 yards and earned 15 more first downs than the home team.

Here is our best Commanders vs. Eagles prediction and NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Commanders vs. Eagles prediction

Under 44.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Eagles have one of the NFL's best defenses. In Week 1, the team got out to a huge early lead, then its defense settled in too much. The same thing happened in Week 2 when the D almost blew a 20-point advantage. However, in Week 3, the defense showed what it can be if it isn't distracted after building up a big lead.

The Commanders were terrible offensively last week, and things won't get better for them this week. Washington's offense averages 288.7 yards per game, mainly because it benefited from really favorable matchups in Weeks 1 and 2.

The Eagles’ run D is allows just 48.3 YPG. By making the Commanders one-dimensional, all the pressure falls on Howell. Howell did throw for 299 yards and two touchdowns against the Denver Broncos, but hasn’t looked good in his other two starts.

Philadelphia scored 25 points in two of its matchups. This is a really talented offense, but it hasn’t always looked cohesive this year. It could go over 30 in this game as part of our NFL predictions for Week 4, but expect the Commanders to show a little resiliency after being embarrassed last week.

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Commanders vs. Eagles best odds

Caesars (-110)

Under 43.5Under 43.5Under 43.5Under 44.5Under 43

Considering what the other four best sportsbooks offer, Caesars' line almost feels like an error. While bet365 actually dropped the total to 43, Caesars offers 44.5, at least a full point higher than every other shop. The best part is, the price is the standard -110.

Get in as soon as possible. Even though bettors are backing the Over, we’d be surprised to see this number stay as high as it is.

Commanders vs. Eagles odds

Commanders vs. Eagles odds analysis

The Eagles opened as 7.5-point favorites. Despite the Commanders receiving more than half the wagers, the line moved in the Eagles' favor. They’re now favored by 8.5 at all of our best live betting sites, and the number should stay there throughout the week. If this spread does hit, it's very unlikely it hits any key numbers.

The game totaled opened at 43.5, and hasn't moved at four of our five best sports betting sites, even though 57% of wagers back the Over. The Eagles’ defense looked very good this season, and after the Commanders’ offensive performance last week, don’t expect oddsmakers to move this number beyond 45.

Commanders vs. Eagles game info

  • When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: 79 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, 9-mph winds

Commanders vs. Eagles prediction made Friday, 9/29/23 at 10:51 a.m. ET

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