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Christian McCaffrey Player Prop Picks, Predictions Divisional Round: Will 49ers RB Burn Cowboys?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 22, 2023 10:19 AM EST • 2 min 54 sec read.

The San Francisco 49ers' trading for Christian McCaffrey has paid off handsomely, and the star running back looks to lead the Niners to a playoff victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium. Read on for our top Christian McCaffrey player prop picks based on the best NFL odds. 

The 49ers lost 44-23 to the Kansas City Chiefs in McCaffrey's team debut but have not looked back since and bring an 11-game winning streak into the Divisional Round. Can a Dallas defense that ranks 22nd in the league against the run (129.3 rushing yards allowed per game) limit him?

Here are our best Christian McCaffrey player prop picks for the Cowboys vs. 49ers Divisional Round matchup (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Cowboys vs. 49ers picks, prop picks, same-game parlay picks, and Brock Purdy prop picks.

Christian McCaffrey Player Prop Picks for the Divisional Round

  • Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 receptions vs. Cowboys (+114 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Christian McCaffrey Over 35.5 receiving yards vs. Cowboys (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cowboys vs. 49ers Odds

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

Christian McCaffrey Player Props

McCaffrey Over 4.5 receptions vs. Cowboys (+114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Since Week 7 (when he made his 49ers debut), McCaffrey's statistics would be something other players would be content with over an entire season. Since joining San Francisco, he has had 228 touches, 1,346 total yards, and 12 touchdowns, which is a big reason the team ranks second in points per game (30.8) and first in points per game differential (+13.2) in that span.  

He has exceeded this projected total in five of 11 games with the 49ers but also had at least seven catches in three consecutive games before his departure. We're making this a solid four-star play (especially at plus-odds) as we expect head coach Kyle Shanahan to utilize more short passes and screens to slow down Dallas's top-ranked pass rush (39% pressure percentage entering last week).

Editor's note: The best odds available for McCaffrey Over 4.5 receptions as of Sunday afternoon are -102 via FanDuel.

McCaffrey Over 35.5 receiving yards vs. Cowboys (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

It makes sense to back the Over on McCaffrey's receiving yards if he will total at least five catches. We're getting great value on this play at BetMGM, as other sportsbooks like PointsBet are as high as 40.5.

McCaffrey finished the regular season as the only player since Week 8 with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards and 10-plus touchdowns. He earned NFC Offensive Player of the Month last month after totaling 767 yards, 27 receptions, and seven touchdowns. 

Niners skill position players are 28th in receptions but first in broken tackles after the catch, per PFF. Thus, this is a solid three-star play, as we expect McCaffrey to make the most of his receptions and produce big yards after the catch. 

Editor's note: The best odds available for McCaffrey Over 35.5 receiving yards as of Sunday afternoon are -110 via FanDuel.

McCaffrey to score a touchdown vs. Cowboys (-150) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Of all players with a minimum of 10 rushing attempts in the wild-card round, McCaffrey averaged nearly 5.0 rush yards over expected (per NextGenStats RYOE Model). By comparison, no other running back even averaged 2.5. And do you want another idea of how good McCaffrey is? He's the only running back to total more than 100 all-purpose yards against the 49ers all season, as he had 104 yards while with the Carolina Panthers in a 37-15 Week 5 loss.

McCaffrey's anytime touchdown odds were -140 last week, so we're getting a relative still at -150 at DraftKings (it is as high as -160 at BetMGM) on a player who has found the end zone at least once in seven consecutive games. 

Editor's note: The best odds available for McCaffrey to score a touchdown as of Sunday afternoon are -150 via FanDuel.

Christian McCaffrey player prop picks made 1/21/2023 at 7:02 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”