Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 7

We have a rematch of last year's Super Bowl on tap in Week 7, and the two teams serve as favorites by this year's Super Bowl odds, too. Who will emerge victorious when the Chiefs and 49ers square off again?

Well, our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction believes San Francisco exacts a bit of revenge in this regular-season showdown. The 49ers serve as small 1.5-point favorites at home against the undefeated Chiefs, who are coming off their bye.

Meanwhile, the 49ers are 3-3 and have been extremely inconsistent to begin the year.

They opened the campaign by beating the New York Jets before losing to both the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams. They lost again in Week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals. To say life has been rough without Christian McCaffrey would be an understatement.

However, I think San Francisco's win over the Seattle Seahawks last week is a sign of things to come. It was perhaps the most complete game the offense has put together this season, and the 49ers had a "mini bye" by playing on Thursday Night Football.

This game gets underway at 4:25 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium, and it serves as just a taste of what we have to offer as part of our NFL Week 7 predictions.

Best Chiefs vs. 49ers picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: 49ers -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐
• Patrick Mahomes pick: Under 249.5 passing yards (-140 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Deebo Samuel to score a TD (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chiefs vs. 49ers odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Best Chiefs vs. 49ers live odds:

Chiefs vs. 49ers opening odds (via BetMGM):

• Spread: Chiefs : +1.5 (-110) | 49ers: -1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)

The spread for this Chiefs vs. 49ers matchup has yet to move from its opening number, as the only one of our best sports betting sites that's adjusted its odds is DraftKings, which prices the 49ers at -112 and the Chiefs at -108 to cover.

However, the total has moved off its opening number by half a point, as all of our best sports betting apps have moved to 47 or 47.5. The lone sportsbook offering the latter is FanDuel; you lose the opportunity to push on 47, but you are getting longer odds on the Over at -105.

Chiefs vs. 49ers against the spread prediction: Week 7

49ers to cover the spread: - 1.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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I'm riding with the 49ers to get at least a bit of revenge for last season's Super Bowl loss. 

The Chiefs just simply haven't looked good all season. You could argue they should have been 0-3 after their first three games, and they barely beat the Los Angeles Chargers before taking down the tragically bad New Orleans Saints before their bye.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have been more weird than bad. They uncharacteristically collapsed against both the Rams and Cardinals, perhaps missing their closer, McCaffrey.

I don't think that'll be an issue in Week 7, as Brock Purdy looked the most comfortable he has all season against the Seahawks, and preseason fourth-string running back Isaac Guerendo ran for 99 yards on only 10 carries after Jordan Mason went down with an injury.

Mason is questionable for Sunday's game after getting in a limited practice session on Thursday, but if he manages to play, the 49ers could have a solid 1-2 punch in the running game.

I'm most interested in the 49ers' passing attack, though. With Brandon Aiyuk looking up to speed after his preseason holdout, Deebo Samuel looking as dangerous as ever, and George Kittle getting the targets he deserves, I think Purdy slices up the Chiefs' secondary en route to a comfortable victory.

Patrick Mahomes prop bet

Under 249.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -140 via ESPN BET | Implied probability: 58.33%

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More Sportsbooks

This is all about the value we're getting with this yardage total.

Our other best sportsbooks range from 237.5 to 241.5, with Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - offering Mahomes' passing yards prop at 236.5 after opening at 238.5.

We're getting more than 10 yards at ESPN BET vs. the total at the majority of books, or one entire completion based on Mahomes' average this season. The quarterback is projected for right around 238 passing yards on Sunday, which would make FanDuel's Under 241.5 at -114 a fine +EV play at 5.39% positive expected value.

However, we're getting better than 7% +EV on this number despite the super short -140 odds. Sure, a winning $10 wager would return only a $7.14 profit, but wouldn't you rather get more bang for your buck and potentially an entire completion of cushion?

Chiefs vs. 49ers best bet

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Deebo Samuel to score a TD ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.48%

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I bet on a Samuel touchdown last week and he scored very early in that game against the Seahawks. 

I mentioned with that pick that Samuel is an interesting player to handicap when it comes to touchdowns, because his receiving TD projection isn't special  (0.36). However, when you factor in his 0.16 rushing TD projection - which could climb if Mason is sidelined - he represents one of the more likely wide receivers to score this week.

In comparison, Ja'Marr Chase's best price on a TD is +120 this week - though I also bet that - on a nearly identical projection.

Therefore, we're getting 10 points of additional value when we compare those lines, or an entire dollar in profit on a winning $10 bet.

Chiefs vs. 49ers head-to-head record

Of course, this is a rematch of last year's Super Bowl, which the Chiefs won by three points - covering the +2 spread. That game also barely went Over its 46.5-point total too.

The Chiefs have won the last four meetings outright, and they served as the favorites in three of those before the Super Bowl. They covered in each of those, too.

In the six games the Chiefs lost outright, they failed to cover in four. That trend is likely to continue if they lose this Week 7 affair, considering the spread is only 1.5 points.

Can the 49ers pick up their first win in this head-to-head showdown in more than a decade? Or will the Chiefs continue their reign of terror over San Francisco?

Chiefs vs. 49ers game info

• When: Sunday, Oct. 20
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
• How to watch: FOX
• Weather: 83 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph W
• Favorite: 49ers -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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