Browns vs. Packers Week 16 Picks: White Christmas Should Affect Total
The Cleveland Browns may have seen their AFC North title hopes vanquished with their last-second loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday. Things do not get any easier traveling to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers on short rest. Can the Browns overcome their COVID-19 issues and resurrect their playoff hopes with a win? Or will the Packers move one step closer to the NFC's No. 1 seed with another big victory? We'll discuss in our Browns-Packers picks.
The 7-7 Browns would have been leading the AFC North and the No. 4 seed in the playoffs entering this week if they had beaten the Raiders in Week 15. However, the loss dropped them to last place in the division and the No. 12 seed in the conference. Cleveland has covered the spread in one of their previous five games.
The 11-3 Packers are the only team in the NFL to have clinched a playoff spot, as they have already won the NFC North division title for the third consecutive season. Green Bay is tied with Dallas for the best ATS record at 11-3.
Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 16 matchup between the Browns and the Packers. (Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Browns vs. Packers Game Info
Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 25, 4:30 p.m. ETTV: FOX, NFL NetworkLocation: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WIWeather: 34 degrees, wintry mix, 38% chance of precipitation
Browns vs. Packers Odds Analysis
This point spread varies widely among sportsbooks. Green Bay is currently as low as 6.5-point favorites at PointsBet and is as high as eight-point favorites at FanDuel. This line got as high as -8.5, but that spread can no longer be found, as there was buyback across the board on the underdog Browns at that number.
The Over/Under is currently at 44.5 or 45 points at most sportsbooks, with BetMGM the lone exception at 45.5. Of course, weather at Lambeau Field in December is always a significant factor, so bettors will want to monitor the temperature and chances for precipitation as it gets closer to kickoff.
Browns vs. Packers Picks
Packers -7.5 (-110) ??Under 44.5 (-110) ???
SEE ALSO: Colts vs. Cardinals Week 16 Picks
Browns vs. Packers Predictions
Packers -7.5 (-110)
Analysis of this game comes with the assumption that Baker Mayfield and most other Cleveland starters that missed Monday's game against the Raiders will clear COVID-19 protocols in time for Saturday's kickoff. However, even though the Browns are perfectly built for cold-weather football behind a solid offensive line and power running game, the schedule-makers were not kind to them, and that will be too much to overcome against Green Bay.
Cleveland has just four days to prepare for this game after their regularly-scheduled Saturday game last week was moved to Monday. Regardless of the scheduling disadvantage, we do not trust a Browns offense that has topped 14 points just twice in their previous seven games. Cleveland is not built to play from behind, as they would rather lean on Nick Chubb and the running game instead of letting Mayfield throw 30 or more times. Thus, this game could get away from the Browns early if Aaron Rodgers and the Packers come out firing.
Under 44.5 (-110)
For as unreliable as Cleveland's offense is on a weekly basis, its defense is stout and has playmakers on every level. If you remove the 45-7 debacle at New England, the Browns have allowed just 15.6 points per game over their last seven games. In addition, many bettors will be quick to wager on the Over at this low total, given Green Bay and Baltimore combined for 61 points last week. However, the Ravens' secondary is a mess with how many players they have on injured reserve, and Tyler Huntley presented issues with his legs for the Packers defense that they will not have with defending Mayfield.
The Over has cashed in each of Green Bay's last four games and is 4-1 in Cleveland's last five games as road underdogs. However, the Under is also 7-3 in Green Bay's previous 10 December games and we believe the weather at Lambeau will do its part in keeping this game low-scoring.
SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Browns-Packers picks made 12/21/2021 at 2:01 p.m. ET
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