Broncos vs. Chiefs Week 13 NFL Picks: Denver's Defense Good Match for Kansas City

Sunday Night Football features the Broncos and Chiefs in a critical AFC West game. We're breaking down all the betting angles with our Broncos and Chiefs picks.

The AFC West has been arguably the most interesting and competitive division in the NFL this season. The Kansas City Chiefs revived their season with four straight wins prior to their bye week, and are now hoping to continue forward en route to a top seed in the AFC. As a near double-digit home favorite, odds are in their favor.

The Denver Broncos started the year poised to shock everyone. But a limited offense has cratered their season after a 3-0 start, and they only have a few opportunities left to keep their season afloat. At 6-5, it's not over, but they need an upset win in Week 13.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 13 matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Broncos vs. Chiefs Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021, 8:20 p.m. ETTV: NBCLocation: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MOWeather: 40 degrees, partially cloudy

Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis

I wouldn't have guessed this game would have the second-biggest line of the week considering the trouble Denver has given Kansas City in the past. Teddy Bridgewater's health is an issue, and if Drew Lock starts, a 10-point line is reasonable. This opened at 9.5 in favor of the Chiefs and has held steady or increased to 10 across the board.

Meanwhile, the total has dipped three points from 50.5 to 47.5. This is the correct direction, and I think it could stand to go down even a few more points as we get closer to kickoff. Nonetheless, we'll take full advantage of this number as we'll explain below.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Picks

Denver +9.5 (-110) ???Under 47.5 (-110) ????

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Broncos vs. Chiefs Predictions

Denver +9.5 (-110)

The Chiefs have won 10 straight games against the Broncos, but these games have been tight more often than not. Denver's deep defense, especially in the secondary, is able to play man coverage and rush Patrick Mahomes better than most. The question is whether the Broncos' offense can be effective against a suddenly stellar Chiefs' defense that limited the Cowboys and the Raiders to 9 and 14 points respectively.

The Broncos' improved running game is the key. If Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams can combine for 150 yards and open some play-action opportunities for Teddy Bridgewater, the Broncos will keep this close until the final drive. I'm betting on that.

Under 47.5 (-110)

Denver offers the best defense possible to slow the Chiefs' offense, as their ability to play Cover 2 has the potential to stifle a potent Chiefs offense. But they have the uncomfortable position of playing Andy Reid after a bye week, which is a death sentence. However, the 10-point line is a non-starter for me.

Instead, the total is a great play. Denver has gone under in five straight games and Kansas City in five of six. This is a surprisingly high line considering Denver's defensive potential and the improvement from the Chiefs.

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Picks made on 12/02/2021 at 1:54 a.m. ET