Broncos vs. Browns Week 7 Picks: Cleveland Hobbled for TNF

The Denver Broncos head to Ohio to take on the Cleveland Browns in what can be described as a must-win game for both sides. We tee up the Week 7 Thursday Night Football matchup with our Broncos vs. Browns picks.

Both teams will be disappointed to be 3-3 through six weeks but Denver really didn't have the same sort of expectations Cleveland did. If anything, the 3-0 start by the Broncos was a nice surprise while their recent 0-3 slump is them coming back down to earth.

The Browns, on the other hand, have gone from overhyped to over-criticized. Their record against the spread is the same as it is straight up at 3-3, which is the case for the Broncos as well. Four of Denver's six games have gone Under the total while Cleveland has gone Over the total in four of its six contests.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 7 matchup between the Broncos and Browns (odds via Pointsbet).

Broncos vs. Browns Week 7 Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, October 21, 8:20 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OHWeather: 51 degrees 

Broncos vs. Browns Odds

This line probably had more movement than any game on the NFL card this week. Most of the top online sportsbooks opened at Browns -6. That line started to plummet around Monday afternoon amid injury updates from Cleveland, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The total opened at 44 points and has dropped by a field goal.

If you like Denver, even though you missed most of the value the opening line offered, you should act quickly in case the Broncos become favored. Considering you are getting so much less value than the opening number, it would be Browns or nothing for me.

Broncos vs. Browns Picks

Browns -1.5 (-115)Over 41 (-110)

SEE ALSO: 3 NFL betting trends to monitor in Week 7

Broncos vs. Browns Predictions

Browns -1.5 (-115)

While I prefer the total, I'm taking the Browns if picking a side. Cleveland is one of the most difficult teams to handicap this season with the variance in its week-to-week performance is among the greatest in the NFL. 

Browns QB Baker Mayfield and the offense looked horrible but the Browns picked up a 14-7 win against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4. The next week, the offense was nearly unstoppable but Cleveland fell 47-42 at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers. I would still lay the points with the Browns with this being an important home game, as they’re in jeopardy of falling dangerously behind in the AFC North.

Over 41 (-110)

My main play for this game is the Over.

For all of the Browns’ troubles, their offensive line is the foundation of this team. The Broncos have the 20th-ranked rush defense by DVOA. Additionally, LB Von Miller accounts for 25.9 percent of Denver's quarterback pressures and 33 percent of its total sacks on the season. If the Browns’ O-line can slow him down, QB Case Keenum should have the time he needs in the pocket while filling in for the injured Mayfield (shoulder).

Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater also has the ability to put points on the board with all of the talent he has at the other skill positions. Even though Bridgewater threw three interceptions last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, he still only has four on the season to go along with 10 touchdown passes.

I am a bit concerned about the Browns pass rush but it's not like Bridgewater hasn't had time to throw. The Broncos offensive line is giving him 2.5 seconds per play in the pocket. For all of these reasons, I think this game goes Over the total with both teams getting over 20 points on Thursday Night Football.

SEE ALSO: NFL power rankings Week 7