Bo Nix TNF Player Prop Bets Tonight: Picks & Odds vs. Saints

In what has the potential to be the worst football game - not just on Thursday night, but any day of the week - of the year, Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos visit the New Orleans Saints in a reunion not even the Hallmark Channel would air. So, what do we do when a game is too bad to watch on its own? We bet on it.

In a battle of rookie quarterbacks lacking receiving weapons, the Broncos and Saints square off on Thursday Night Football. Our Bo Nix TNF prop bets believe that he'll have more or less an impressive game relative to his lines at our best NFL betting sites.

Nix and the Broncos are field-goal favorites by the Thursday Night Football odds, and the total of 37 is the lowest of any game in Week 7. So that's fun!

I think that's more than enough buildup for this probable catastrophe, but if you are interested in watching (why), it'll start at 8:15 p.m. ET from the Caesars Superdome.

Now, for why you're really here: the bets. So, as part of our NFL Week 7 predictions, check out our Broncos vs. Saints prediction.

And if you want to spit in the face of this low total, make sure you go to our first touchdown scorer predictions and Alvin Kamara touchdown picks. 

Bo Nix prop predictions for Thursday Night Football

• Bo Nix Over 17.5 completions (-138 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Bo Nix Over 189.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Bo Nix Over 5.5 rushing attempts (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Bo Nix player props

NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Bo Nix Over 17.5 completions (-138) ⭐⭐⭐

One of my favorite things about this bet is that FanDuel's line is a full completion below this at all of our other NFL prop betting sites. Sure, the Over is juiced to -138, but based on the projections, this is the highest EV play.

This is a good lesson to not be afraid of short odds, especially if you can get a better line.

Nix is projected for 19.41 completions, so you may think Over 18.5 at -106 odds (as is the case at BetRivers) is the best bet. However, that bet is showing only 5.6% positive expected value. Meanwhile, this is nearly a full percent better at around 6.5%. 

Additionally, when it comes to this game specifically, the lower the line, the better. We know about the total, and we know the Broncos are far from offensive juggernauts in the best-case scenario.

Therefore, with our small mathematical edge and aversion to taking a risk on the bigger number, we'll ride with the Over 17.5 passing completions at FanDuel.

Best odds: -138 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 57.98%

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Bo Nix Over 189.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

I offered this same prop as part of my Broncos vs. Saints TNF prop bets - though we got a total three yards lower on Wednesday - and it's still my favorite bet when it comes to Nix.

Based on his passing yards projection of around 204, we're getting roughly 16% +EV on this bet.

Nix was genuinely terrible in his first career game. He managed only 138 yards on 42 pass attempts against the Seattle Seahawks. But he's been significantly better since then. The rookie signal-caller has managed 200-plus passing yards in four of his last five games.

The rest of our best sports betting apps are hovering around 193.5 to 194.5 for this total, so let's save ourselves a few yards like we did with the completions for our previous bet.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Bo Nix Over 5.5 rushing attempts (-120) ⭐⭐⭐

If Nix has shown even one overly redeeming quality through his first six career games, it's his ability to scramble with the best of them.

Nix has 180 rushing yards on 37 carries (6.16 per game), and he's taken things up a notch recently with 14 carries in his last two games.

The quarterback is projected for 6.68 rushes and 30.5 rushing yards (his total is 25.5), so taking the Over on either the attempts or yardage is a good bet. However, I generally prefer volume-based rushing and receiving props, because they're less volatile.

Additionally, when it comes to quarterbacks, you need to remember that kneel-downs count toward rushing attempts. With the Broncos serving as 3-point favorites, Nix could pick up additional rushing "attempts" to close out the contest. 

Best odds: -120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.55%

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Broncos vs. Saints odds

Thursday Night Football game info

• Matchup: Broncos vs. Saints
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
• How to watch: Prime Video
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Broncos -3 (-105 via BetMGM)

Thursday Night Football promos

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• FanDuel promo code
• bet365 bonus code
• BetMGM bonus code

NFL betting odds pages

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