Bills vs. Patriots Week 16 Picks: New England Goes for Season Sweep in AFC East Race

Our attention in Week 16 turns to Foxborough, Mass., where the New England Patriots are set to face the Buffalo Bills in one of the most anticipated matchups of the season. We break it down with our Bills-Patriots NFL picks.

Buffalo has fallen on hard times, losing three of its last five games to lose, and a bit of faith from the betting public in the process. Two of the three losses were as the favorite, and the Bills are just 7-6-1 against the spread through 14 games. With that said, the Bills are 2-1-1 ATS in divisional games and 4-3 ATS on the road.

New England had its incredible seven-game win streak come to an end last week when it fell 27-17 on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. It was a game the Patriots had no business winning, getting run over by Colts running back and MVP contender Jonathan Taylor. The Patriots are 9-5 ATS overall and 3-1 ATS in division games.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 16 matchup between the Bills and Patriots (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Patriots Week 16 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 26, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MAWeather: 44 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 11 mph winds

Bills vs. Patriots Odds Analysis

The Patriots opened up as 2-point favorites before the Bills received 66% of the betting handle and 76% of wagers. The Pats are now 1.5-point favorites with some books even hanging 2.5.

As for the total, it’s moved down a full point from 44.5 points at open to 43.5 pretty much across the board. A slight majority of bets are on the Over, but the sharp money has been on the Under.

Bills vs. Patriots Picks

Patriots -1.5 (-114) ????Under 43.5 (-110) ????

SEE ALSO: NFL Week 16 Odds, Lines, and Picks

Bills vs. Patriots Predictions

Patriots -1.5 (-114)

I think the Bills are massive pretenders this year. QB Josh Allen has done his best Andrew Luck impersonation, failing to get his team into winning position and padding his stats late in games by throwing and throwing as the Bills try to come back.

For all the hard work the Bills put in on offense to get to elite status, they have floundered. Buffalo ranks 11th in passing DVOA and 16th in rushing, a real indictment of the lack of talent brought in over the offseason. The defense has been great all season, but cornerback Tre'davious White has been out since Week 12 due to a knee injury.

New England may have gotten run over by Taylor, but it has been elite against the run (sixth by DVOA) and the pass (third) this year. The Pats shouldn’t be victimized by the run again, and on the other side of the coin, the Patriots should have a field day against this weak front seven of the Bills.

Under 43.5 (-110)

As I just alluded to, the Bills can’t stop the run. There’s no reason why Pats QB Mac Jones should be throwing more than 15 times on Sunday. He threw just three times (and complete only two for 19 yards) against the Bills in Week 13, as New England racked up over 200 rushing yards in a 14-10 win, albeit in awful weather conditions.

New England has ranked 25th in seconds per play and should do very well to slow the pace of this one. The Bills may be passing but should be no match against this stout Patriots defense.

The Patriots should control this game given their huge mismatch in the running game and slow pace.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Bills-Patriots picks made 12/23/2021 at 11:45 p.m. ET.